Quarterly Investment Update - 2nd Quarter 2025
Dear Clients and Friends,
The second quarter ended on a positive note with all the major stock indexes rising to all-time highs, despite the uncertainties due to tariffs, the Israel – Iran conflict, the Russia – Ukraine war as well as other issues that may have an effect on our economy. Stocks made a swift and historic comeback from the market’s April bottom, with the Standard and Poor 500 closing at a record high. Now, as the first half of 2025 draws to a close, overarching risks are all but removed. From tariff-driven inflation pressures to conflicting economic signals and murky data, what lies ahead is anything but straightforward. According to EY chief economist Greg Daco, “we are going to see an inflation reacceleration that will be tariff-induced. There’s more pressure to come into the economy and that will lead to income erosion and a consumer spending slowdown. That is really the picture that we should expect in the second half of this year”. The latest reading of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge reflected some of those concerns, with price increases accelerating in May as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target amid underlying signs of slowing economic growth.
Those economic concerns, however, have yet to weigh heavily on investors. Markets have powered higher, led by strength in Tech and Financials, as consumer sentiment rebounds and traders digest growing clarity around trade policy.
As far as interest rates are concerned, we have had several Federal reserve Governors come out and talk about cutting interest rates. It seems likely that we will get a cut in September and a small chance of a cut in July. This would be bullish for both stocks and bonds if the market feels that the Federal Reserve believes inflation is not an issue. As these uncertainties get resolved, we feel that there is more upside in the markets for the rest of the year.
During the past year, we were holding high cash levels than normal. Most of that cash was invested in one-year U.S. treasury Bonds that matured May 31, 2025 and June 30, 2025 respectively. We have been investing most of the cash proceeds in Fidelity Corporate Bonds ETF (FCOR), which pays out a dividend of 4.5%. The remainder of the cash was invested in the Schwab Value Advantage (SWVXX) fund with a similar yield.
During the quarter, we purchased back HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) into most of our portfolios. We also purchased a small position in Pool Corp. (POOL). As far as sales for the quarter, we sold Dominion Resources (D) and Easterly Government Properties (DEA).
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is reasonable prospect for double – digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continued with our average asset allocation mix of 40%-50% Equity, 40%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-20% Cash for most of the portfolios.
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact us should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news and Market Commentary Archives. Lastly, we hope you have a safe and happy Independence Day weekend!