Quarterly Investment Report – 3rd Quarter 2013
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
3 RD
QUARTER 2013
October 2, 2013
Dear Friends and Clients,
Surprise, surprise. Government shuts down, stocks go up! All three major U.S. Stock indexes (DOW, S & P 500, NASDAQ) closed solidly in the green to start out the fourth quarter, as did most foreign bourses – despite the torrent political hype leading up to the federal government’s partial shutdown. When this whole political debate is all over, we may see a few nominal tax and spending cuts to please the Republican base. The Affordable Care Act will survive, essentially as is, cheering the Democratic base. And investors should look forward to further stock market gains.
U.S. stocks and bonds rose for much of the year, including the third quarter, but all kinds of investments ran into recent trouble during the summer. Foreign stock markets have done even worse, especially emerging-market nations such as India, Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey. The Dow Jones Total Stock Market Emerging Markets Index has also fallen. Even with the summer pullback, the benchmark S & P 500 remains up 18% for the year to date, a huge leap of faith, given the modest earnings growth we have witnessed so far in 2013. Despite wobbling in the final days of September amid political brinkmanship in Washington over the debt ceiling, the S & P 500 finished just 2% below its all-time high of 1725.52 set September 18.
As far as the bond market is concerned, it had a rough start to the third quarter but finally settled down. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note finished the quarter at 2.6%, up a notch from 2.5% at the end of June. After dropping to 1.6% in early May, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to almost 3.0% on September 5, one of the sharpest moves in years. Most of the recent headlines concentrated on the Federal Reserve Bank. First Larry Summers, Obama’s reputed first choice to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, dropped out of the running. Then, on Wednesday, September 18, the Fed announced that there will be no “tapering” of the central bank’s $85 billion a month of bond purchases. Also, for the third time this year, the Fed downgraded its 2013 outlook for U.S. economic growth. Bernanke & Co. are expecting real GDP to increase just 2% to 2.3% for the year, down from a June estimate of 2.3% to 2.6%.
Now that we have had a couple of weeks for the dust to settle, what conclusions can we draw from the Fed’s action (or inaction)? Perhaps the most important point is not the “taper” decision itself, but the rationale behind it. In the first half of this year, the nation’s “real” (inflation-adjusted) output of goods and services grew at a 1.8% annualized rate. So the Fed is now forecasting only a minimal pickup in the second half of the year, which is contrary to Wall Street’s view that the economy is rapidly accelerating. If the Fed is correct in its assessment of the economy, we can look forward to a substantial drop in bond yields over the remaining months of the year. Nevertheless, we view the recent turmoil in the bond market as a warning shot for a new era of rising interest rates down the road, probably at least a year away.
In short, the financial markets find themselves in a stalemate. If the raging interest-rate fever breaks (bond and mortgage yields drop), both domestic and foreign stocks will likely put in a strong finish for the year. Gold, silver and the rest of the metals complex-will revive, as will the battered currencies from the Australia and Canadian dollars to the Brazilian real and Indian rupee.
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is a reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continue to maintain an average asset allocation mix of 45% – 50% Equity, 45% – 50% Fixed Income and 0% – 10% cash for most of the portfolios.
The Fixed Income portion of our portfolios continues to remain the same for the quarter. All of our portfolios have and will continue to emphasize bonds or bond funds that offer short maturities. We added new positions in Blackrock Munienhanced Fund (MEN), Reality Income Corp. (O), Pubic Storage Depository Shares (PSA+V in Schwab and PSA-PV in Yahoo), Enerbridge Energy Management (EEQ) and wisdom tree Trust (ICN). As far as sales for the quarter, we sold our entire position in Weitz Short-Intermediate Income Fund (WEFIX).
On the Equity side of our portfolios, we added two new positions in Silver Bay Realty Corp. (SBY) and News Corp. (NSWA). We also exchanged most of our position in the Longleaf Partners Funds (LLPFX) to the Longleaf Partners Global Fund (LLGLX). As far as sales for the quarter are concerned, we sold our entire positions in Apple Inc. (AAPL), WellPoint Inc. (WLP), and California Water Service Group (CWT).
We want to thank you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandcpa.com for a quick Retirement Calculator, our latest firm news, and Market Commentary archives.