Quarterly Investment Update - 4th Quarter 2025
For months, the headlines have been trying to take this market down. First it was surging bond yields and “higher for longer” interest rates. Toss in weak earnings from some of the big names, geopolitical flare-ups, and talk of a looming recession. Then came the fears around AI froth – overstretched valuations, overbought tech stocks, traders too euphoric. If you followed the mainstream media, you would expect this market to be on its knees. But every time we have seen a pullback this past year – whether it has been a 3% four-day slide, or April’s “Tariff Tantrum” 20% correction – this market has come roaring back to set new highs. The market is sending a message – and it is not subtle. The foundation is stronger than the headlines want us to believe. All of this happened before the Federal Reserve made one of its most important announcements in years. On October 29, the Fed confirmed that Quantitative tightening has ended. As of December 12, the Fed stopped shrinking its balance sheet. They began reinvesting maturing Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, reversing the slow liquidity (i.e. cash) drain that has been weighing on the system since 2022. That means billions of dollars will start flowing back into U.S. stocks as the Fed shifts from draining money out of the system to putting it back in. More liquidity typically gives investors more confidence – and that can lift stock prices across the board.
While many global economies continue to struggle, the U.S. is showing renewed signs of strength – and the outlook for 2026 is getting clearer. Recent data shows U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expanding at a 3.9% annual pace, with some forecasts expecting growth to accelerate next year. Rate cuts appear energy prices are softening, and the onshoring of data centers, semiconductors, pharmaceutical and automotive industries are poised to fuel continued momentum. Meanwhile, inflation pressures are easing, with deflationary trends in places like China and Europe helping to keep domestic prices in check. All of this paints a very different picture than we have seen in recent years and we look forward to 2026.
During the quarter, we added a couple of names that we owned before – Pfizer, Inc. (PFE) and Rayonier, Inc. (RYN). We also added one new name, Camden Property Trust (CPT), a real estate company primarily engaged in the ownership, management, development, acquisition and construction of multifamily apartment communities. As far as sales for the quarter are concerned, we sold Oscar Health (OSCR), Westrock Coffee Co. (WEST), Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS), Compass Diversified (CODI) and Amazon (AMZN).
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is reasonable prospect for double – digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continued with our average asset allocation mix of 40%-50% Equity, 40%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-20% Cash for most of the portfolios.
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact us should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news and Market Commentary Archives.

