Quarterly Investment Update – 2nd Quarter 2007
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
2 ND
QUARTER 2007
July 2, 2007
Dear Friends and Clients,
As you can see from the enclosed charts of the Standard & Poor 500 Index, stock prices continued their upward momentum for the quarter and six months ended June 30, 2007. In summary, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the quarter up 8.5%, the best quarterly gain since 2003. The broad Standard & Poor’s’ 500 stock Index was up 5.8% for the quarter and the technology-focused NASDAQ Composite Index was up 7.5% for the quarter. Despite the stock market’s second-quarter strength, everyday investors remain jittery and an increasing number of big investors are betting on a pullback. The stock market started getting anxious again in June, just as it did in late February and early March.
As we discussed in our last quarterly Investment Update letter, we have to be alert for some fairly dramatic swings in the days ahead, continuing the pattern we’ve seen lately of growing volatility. Of course, volatility is a two way street, up as well as down. As far as we’re concerned, this volatility has brought us wonderful opportunities during the past six months. Even though most stock indexes have climbed during the first six months of this year, the number of individual NYSE issues touching new 52-week highs peaked way back in December. As the market pushed upward to new highs in February, and then again in May and June, fewer and fewer individual stocks marched on to their own new highs. This lagging breadth, plus the continued stickiness in bond yields, is slowing the stock market’s advance-and will eventually stop it cold, for a time. At some point this summer, we feel that we’ll get another pullback in the blue chip market, indexes. However, we feel that any weakness will likely be short-lived because there’s still too much idle cash in the hands of corporations, private-equity funds and the general public.
The word from America’s housing sector is pretty grim right now. A couple of weeks ago, the monthly poll from the National Association of Home Builders revealed the gloomiest outlook among builders in 16 years. We’re told the Home Builders’ sentiment index fell to its lowest level since February 1991. At that point in time, .the national housing market was approaching a major bottom, from which a spectacular 14 year boom emerged. Sub-prime mortgages and their impact on both the housing market and the financial system are legitimate concerns, but we feel the housing slump is close to it major bottom in most parts of the country. We’re not saying that home prices are as depressed today as they were back then, but we have taken advantage of the volatility by adding this new asset sector, Homebuilding, to our Portfolios. This is the first new asset sector that we have .added to our equity portfolio thus far.
As far as bonds are concerned, we have seen more and more evidence that rising bond yields are starting to hinder the stock market’s advance. As you can see from the enclosed chart of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, bond yields for the quarter have risen from 4.5% in early March to a closing high of 5.25% on Tuesday, June 12, 2007. The Federal Reserve did not clarify their position the direction of interest rates at their June 28 th meeting and left the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25%. We’re still hoping that rates will cool off to some extent as the summer wears Qn. In fact, bond yields have dropped nicely over the past two weeks. Assuming bonds continue to behave in the same manner, it could provide us with a nice short rally in stocks before the market takes a “summer siesta”.
During the quarter ended June 30, 2007, we continued with our strategy of reviewing all of our portfolios with regards to asset allocation and continued to reduce our over-weighted industry sectors’ of stocks and mutual funds that have substantially appreciated in value in order to raise cash. As far as the remaining long-term bonds and zero-coupon bonds, we plan to finish selling these and gradually, shorten the maturities on the fixed-income side of all of our portfolios.
For taxable accounts, we have continued to purchase high yielding investments such as limited partnerships, preferred stocks, RElTS, investment trusts as well as high yielding dividend-paying stocks of domestic corporations from selected equity industry groups. For non-taxable accounts, such as all retirement accounts, we have continued to purchase growth and value-equity investments in selected industry groups. In addition, for all accounts, we have used some of our cash to establish or increase asset Positions in our favorite stocks and mutual funds to properly allocate our weighted industry sectors.
All in all, we continue to have a positive outlook for stocks but we will continue to take defensive measures and use any correction as an opportunity to buy more of our favorite stocks and mutual funds. We feel confident that we will have a very good year in all of our portfolios during 2007.
Again, thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm and it is always appreciated. Please contact me with any questions or comments.