Special Investment Update – August 6, 2007
Special Investment Update
August 6, 2007
Dear Friends and Clients,
We are writing this Special Investment Update to remind everyone about the rarest commodity of all -“calm”. After the rough sessions that the stock markets had during the past two weeks, investors who were not prepared for this type of volatility could be on the verge of a state of panic. When the markets get into a tight spot, as they are now, “calm” is one commodity that suddenly grows more valuable than anything else.
As expected, the stock market is obviously in the midst of a full-blown “correction”, and like all market pullbacks -it has a nasty side. Financial stocks, particularly those with any ties to mortgage lending, have been savaged. Of course, we are concerned about the turmoil in the nation’s mortgage and corporate credit markets and the ongoing problems in the housing sector, but we continue to feel that these factors won’t be enough to derail the economic expansion -or the bull market for stocks. The stock market could experience some further selling in the short-term but we do not feel that this is the beginning of a real bear market -the kind in which stocks continue falling for over a year. No major bear market has ever taken place alongside strong worldwide economic growth, which is what we have today. Furthermore, according to the International Monetary Fund, this growth should continue until 2008, at the earliest.
As we discussed in our last Quarterly Investment Update on July 2, 2007, Wall Street is a two-way street. We have clearly seen what kind of damage can result when market volatility picks up on the downside. Once that bottom is reached and the market finds its footing again, we are going to see some fantastic volatility -this time, on the upside. To put this “correction” in the proper perspective, let’s review the market’s performance over the past five years. During this period of time, the blue chip Standard & Poor 500 index has more than doubled and numerous foreign stock markets have fared even better. Equally surprising, stock markets throughout the world have achieved these enormous gains without suffering a major 15% -20% setback along the way (like the meltdown in the summer of 1998, which interrupted the market boom of the Clinton years). It has been a pretty much steady, more or less peaceful, seemingly irresistible climb.
The Standard & Poor 500 Index is down 7.7% from its record set last month, which means it has covered most of the ground to a 10% pullback traditionally defined as a “correction” that shakes speculative excesses out of a bull market. Whether the market actually reaches that threshold may depend on the financial sector, analysts say. The financial sector is now bearing the brunt of investors’ jitters over the economy and the shakeout in risky mortgages, which analysts feel could spill over into other comers of the credit markets.
As far as bonds are concerned, they have become a safe haven for investors who fled stocks by pushing prices on Treasury securities, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note down to 4.698%. Investors will now turn their attention to tomorrow’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy making committee. Despite the market turmoil, the committee is expected to leave its interest-rate target at 5.25%, where it has been for more than a year. But it is likely to reinforce that its principal concern is that inflation might rise. As investors, we have to be aware of the Fed’s increasingly difficult position of balancing low interest rates and high liquidity to keep the economic growth at a sustainable rate but without allowing inflation to accelerate. According to the Wall Street Journal, by Friday afternoon, the future markets saw more than 80% odds the Fed would cut rates a quarter of a percent point by its late October meeting and a high odds it would cut another quarter point by the end of next January.
During the month ended July 31, 2007, we continued with our strategy of reviewing all of our portfolios with regards to asset allocation and continued to reduce our over-weighted industry sectors of stocks and mutual funds that have substantially appreciated in value in order to raise cash. In addition, since bond yields have continued to drop nicely over the past month, we have raised additional cash by selling all of our zero-coupon bonds. As far as the remaining long-term bonds, we plan to continue to finish selling these and gradually shorten the maturities on the fixed-income side of all of our portfolios.
All in all, we continue to have a positive outlook for stocks but we will continue to take defensive measures and use any correction as an opportunity to buy more of our favorite stocks and mutual funds. We feel confident that we will have a very good year in all of our portfolios during 2007.
Again, thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm and it is always appreciated. Please contact me with any questions or comments.