Quarterly Investment Update – 4th Quarter 2007
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
4 TH
QUARTER 2007
January 8, 2008
Dear Friends and Clients,
First of all I want to thank many of you who called me to not only discuss your investments but also to provide words of encouragement regarding the turbulence the markets provided us during the fourth quarter. This counter seasonal weakness that has dragged on for almost three months now was not what we expected but the vote of confidence is certainly appreciated. We have to admit that we were not thrilled with the way the old year winded down on Wall Street. The S & P dropped in both November and December, the first back-to-back losses for those months since 1974. It certainly was not a typical third year in the presidential cycle. Wall Street ended the year with a painful fourth quarter but managed to finish 2007 on the plus side for all the major stock averages. The Standard & Poor 500 index ended up with a gain of 3.53 percent for 2007.
As investors, we have to be able to calmly sit back, analyze our investments and rationalize where the economy will be in 2008. The challenge for the U. S. economy pits the powerful forces of expansion against the almost equally formidable downward pressures that lead to recession.
The negatives are obvious. Clearly, the downturn in the U. S. housing market has dealt a body blow to the banking system. Bad mortgage loans, in turn, have prompted bankers to pull in the reins on other types of lending. The result being that credit is becoming harder to get, even for respectable borrowers, and the wheels of commerce are slowing. One school of thought goes so far as to suggest that the overall U. S. economy may shrink in 2008, bringing on a sharp drop in corporate profits, which is not a friendly scenario for the stock market.
As far as the positives are concerned, the following three factors point toward a stronger economy at least in the second half of 2008, and perhaps a continuation of the bull case scenario for the stock market.
- The Fed, under Ben Bernanke, has acted much more quickly that it did under Alan Greenspan to relieve distress in the financial system. In 2001, Greenspan waited until the Dow Jones Industrial Average had tumbled almost a year before he instituted the first rate cut. Bernanke responded in four weeks and is likely to continue to do so.
- Corporate America is awash in cash. Corporate cash holdings have roughly tripled from a decade ago. Not only do these cash reserves provide a cushion against hard times, they also give companies the firepower to buy back stock. For the past couple of months, U. S. Corporations have been retiring stock (buying back more than they are issuing) at the fastest pace on record -an extremely bullish omen.
- The depressed dollar is sparking an export boom. To foreigners, goods priced in greenbacks appear to be a spectacular bargain. U. S. companies are stealing market share from oversees rivals. As exports ramp up, U. S. manufacturers will hire more workers, offsetting some of the economic drag from the housing slump.
Despite the above positive factors, we have to reckon with the increasing possibility that a weak economy may hinder corporate earnings growth in the first half of 2008. This possibility became more evident as stock prices plunged in the first week of the New Year after the government’s much anticipated employment report showed weaker-than-expected job growth and a rise in the unemployment rate. Investors had been awaiting the jobs report for weeks as they tried to determine whether the economy would continue to benefit from robust consumer spending even as sectors like home construction, mortgage writing and manufacturing slow. Wall Street is concerned that areas of weakness could puncture growth and even tip the economy into recession if consumers can’t depend on a solid job market.
In summary, we do not feel this is a time to be complacent about our investments or the economy in general. Regardless of the poor fourth quarter performance and the poor start of the New Year, we remain hopeful for 2008 as a whole. Many sectors of the U. S. economy are thriving, most notably export-oriented industries like agriculture and high-tech equipment. Once investors get some sense that the housing slump has hit bottom, the stock market could stage an explosive advance. In the meantime, we must be prepared for a lot of volatility. The vicious sell-offs we saw in July/August and October/November were probably not the last. Fortunately, the basic make-up of all of our portfolios should make it through safely and provide all of us with value beyond what the markets give us.
All in all, we continue to have a positive outlook for stocks but we will continue to take defensive measures and use any correction as an opportunity to buy more of our favorite stocks and mutual funds. We feel confident that we will have a very good. year in all of our portfolios during 2008.
Again, thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm and it is always appreciated. Please contact me with any questions or comments.