Quarterly Investment Update – 3rd Quarter 2007
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
3 RD
QUARTER 2007
October 2, 2007
Dear Friends and Clients,
We are certainly glad that the third quarter has ended and it appears that the markets are settling down from the summer correction. For the quarter ended September 30,2007, the Standard and Poor 500 index was up 1.6%.
As we discussed in our Special Investment Update, dated August 6, 2007, we pointed out our concerns regarding the turmoil in the nation’s mortgage and corporate credit markets and the ongoing problems in the housing sector. The infection began to spread to other areas such as good quality mortgages and commercial paper. As you can see from the enclosed three-month chart of the Standard and Poor 500 Index, from late July to mid-August, the stock market appeared to take off on a downward path. You will note that the low point of the correction was hit on August 15, 2007 with a closing price of 1406.70, which represents a 9.2% correction.
Then, on Tuesday, September 18, 2007, Ben Bernanke’s interest rate cut lit the fuse. The Fed gave investors all they could have hoped for and more. First, the central bank voted to cut the crucially important federal funds rate (the interest rate at which banks lend overnight money to each other) by a half a point, to 4.75%. But they did not stop there. In an even more dramatic gesture, the Fed pulled a surprise. They slashed the discount rate by half a point, too, to 5.25%. In normal times, nobody pays attention to the discount rate, because almost nobody borrows at that rate. The discount window is typically reserved for emergency loans that the Fed makes to institutions facing financial difficulties. Last month, the Fed slashed the discount rate by a half a point -and even urged healthy institutions to take advantage of the concession. Now Mr. Bernanke and company have dropped the discount rate again. It is as if Bernanke is saying to the financial markets: “I’ve got a firehose full of cash, and I’m going to keep shooting it until this credit panic is thoroughly under control.”
However, the following Tuesday, September 25, 2007, we heard more talk about the possibility of an economic downturn after the gloomy reports on consumer confidence and housing prices. Clearly, the housing slowdown -which has proved to be longer and deeper than most of us initially expected -is putting a damper on the overall economy, the consumer sector in particular. So is a recession really in the works? It is going to be a close call.
Well, how should we, as investors react to all these economic reports? We have to continue to be aware of the Federal Reserve’s increasingly difficult position of balancing low interest rates and high liquidity to keep the economic growth at a sustainable rate but without allowing inflation to accelerate. However, we feel confident that Ben Bernanke has administered the right medicine in the right dose, at the right time. Instead of waiting, Bernanke is acting quickly to relieve an obvious credit crunch. Of course, there is no guarantee that Bernanke’s actions to date will be enough to revive economic growth. Another downshift may be called for at the Fed’s October 31 5t meeting, perhaps before.
As far as our own assessment of the current economic outlook is concerned, we feel confident that, despite these day-to-day jitters, the economy will avoid a recession. Corporate profits, in the aggregate should continue to grow in the quarters ahead. As the fourth quarter rolls on, investors will gain confidence that Ben Bernanke’s rate cuts came just in time to keep the economy growing in 2008. This confidence will spur another wave of buying that will hopefully push all the major stock indexes up to new highs for the year, assuming the geo-political picture remains the same.
During the quarter ended September 30, 2007, we continued with our strategy of reviewing all of our portfolios with regards to asset allocation and continued to reduce our over-weighted industry sectors of stocks and mutual funds that have substantially appreciated in value in order to raise cash. Specifically, on the fixed-income side of all of our portfolios, we sold all of our remaining long-term and zero-coupon bonds and replaced them with short-term bonds as well as REITS and preferred stocks. On the equity side of all of our portfolios, even though their basic make-up is value and growth oriented stocks, for taxable accounts, we have continued to purchase high yielding investments such as limited partnerships, preferred stocks, REITS, investment trusts as well as high yielding dividend-paying stocks of domestic corporations from selected equity industry groups. For non-taxable accounts, such as all retirement accounts, we have continued to purchase growth and value-equity investments in selected industry groups. In addition, for all accounts, we have used some of our cash to establish or increase asset positions in our favorite stocks and mutual funds to properly allocate our weighted industry sectors.
All in all, we continue to have a positive outlook for stocks but we will continue to take defensive measures and use any correction as an opportunity to buy more of our favorite stocks and mutual funds. We feel confident that we will have a very good year in all of our portfolios during 2007.
Again, thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm and it is always appreciated. Please contact me with any questions or comments.