Quarterly Investment Update – 3rd Quarter 2008
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
3 RD
QUARTER 2008
October 7, 2008
Dear Friends and Clients,
During the quarter ended September 30, 2008, the stock market was prodding along on an upward trend until we got to Black September. The worst turmoil was in the credit markets, especially after Lehman filed for bankruptcy protection September 15 th . Many investors bailed out of any debt that wasn’t backed by the U. S. government, and lending between banks ground to a halt. For a time, the markets stabilized on the promise of a rescue plan. But on September 29, after traders and investors watched with disbelief the House’s rejection of the bailout bill, stocks were swept by waves of selling. The Dow suffered its biggest point drop in history (777 points) and closed at its lowest level in three years, which amounted to a 27% decline from the record close hit last October. On the final day of the quarter, stocks staged a rebound amid hopes Congress will approve a rescue plan sooner than later and the Dow gained
485.21 points to close at 10, 850.66 The Standard & Poor’s SOD-stock index was off 9% from the end of June and down 26% from its high.
On the surface, the third quarter losses in stocks seemed like a continuation of the first half of the year, but underneath there were some notable differences. Despite bleak headlines about banks and brokerage firms in distress, financial stocks in the S & P ended the quarter essentially flat from three months ago as some healthier banks and smaller institutions posted gains. Despite a worsening job market and the rising tide of mortgage delinquencies, consumer-discretionary stocks were also more buoyant than the broader market-falling just 1% -as oil prices declined and some investors began to think a recession was already built into share prices. Real damage was done to the stocks that had done well during the first half of 2008: energy and materials. The most visible reversal was oil, which finished the third quarter down 28% and materials stocks fell 23%.
As far as the U.S. dollar is concerned, it mounted an explosive rally in the third quarter, persuading some investors that its long decline had finally touched bottom. Over the course of the quarter, the dollar strengthened 11.8% versus the euro and rallied 12% against the British pound. However many believed that the dollar strengthened not because the U.S. looked better but because the rest of the world, particularly Europe and the U.K., looked worse.
Now that, we have reviewed the third quarter, let’s look at the positives to be hopeful about the economy and the stock market over the next 12-15 months. As far as energy prices are concerned, they have down shifted into a new, lower trading range. Since July, crude oil has skidded 34% while natural gas plunged 45%. Granted, these fuels are still considerably more expensive than they were a couple of years ago, leaving plenty of room for energy producers to make money. But, according to analysts, the drop will save consumers -in America and around the world-approximately $1 trillion a year over what they would have laid out for petroleum had prices remained at the July peak. This should have significant ripple effects for Main Street as well as Wall Street.
The recently enacted Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 has a good chance to restore investor and consumer confidence. However, the whole process made me wonder whether we need to fix our congressional problems before we fix our financial problems. The original Paulson Plan consisted of 3 )1 pages, resembling the Resolution Trust Corp. of the early 1990’s, to absorb hundreds of billions worth of bad assets from the banking system. Sure it had its flaws, but it was very clear in taking dead aim on dysfunctional mortgage and credit markets. Congress responded with a 400-plus page package loaded with sweeteners. Lawmakers added stipulations on equity warrants for participating institutions, restrictions on executive compensation, a supplementary insurance scheme, as well as new bureaucratic oversight functions. This dilutes the thrust of the policy response and the impact on market anxiety. Investors responded to the rescue plan with the Dow Jones industrials plunging as much as 800 points on Monday, October 6 -the largest one-day point drop -before recovering to close with a loss of 370. However, it was encouraging to see the index make up, in an hour and fifteen minutes, more than half of what it had lost in the first five hours and forty -five minutes of trading, which leads me to believe we may be in the vicinity of a major bottom. Even though the devil is in the details, the rescue plan has a good chance to work if used aggressively.
As we begin the fourth quarter and as bad as conditions appear in the headlines, I feel that the crisis is closer to its end than its beginning and that better times are coming, probably before year-end but most likely in 2009. The central banks are trying frantically to shore up the balance sheets of financial institutions. Their efforts go well beyond the $700 billion rescue plan the U. S. Congress finally passed, to include, among many similar initiatives, massive lending by the Federal Reserve. On Monday, for instance, the Federal Reserve increased the credit it may extend to banks some $900 billion dollars. Since last Friday, many European governments announced measures to help their banking sectors as well. All this is necessary because banks around the world have become nervous about loaning money. Governments are determined to flood the world with money and restore banks’ confidence in each other. Many analysts argue that major central banks should also do a coordinated cut to interest rates to get credit flowing again. The government’s key objective, therefore, is to make lenders willing to start lending once more and thus create more liquidity by recapitalizing the banking system. However, what can’t be solved with money, at least not immediately, is the psychological damage. Once there is enough liquidity in the financial system to get us out of this credit crunch, it could do wonders for people’s confidence and the plunge in stocks could reverse in a very dramatic way.
In summary, we continue to be more cautious about our investments and will continue to take additional defensive measures by taking some profits in some of our over-valued positions and limit our buying to the strongest, safest positions. Fortunately, the basic make-up of all of our portfolios should make it through safely and provide all of us with value beyond what the markets give us.
We feel confident that we will have a very good year in all of our portfolios during 2008. Again, thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm and it is always appreciated. Please contact me with any questions or comments.