Special Investment Update – November 6, 2008
SPECIAL INVESTMENT UPDATE
November 6, 2008
Dear Friends and Client
U.S. stocks ended one of their worst months on record, but signs of further easing in credit markets lifted battered shares for the week ended Friday, October 31, 2007. For the week, the Dow gained 11.3 percent, the S & P 500 rose 10.5 percent, and the NASDAQ advanced 10.9 percent. The month of October, though, was a different story. The Dow lost 14.06 percent, its worst one-month percentage drop since August 1998, while the S & P 500 lost 16.83 percent, its worst one-month percentage slide since October 1987.
Since our last quarterly investment update, it seems that just about everything that could go wrong has. Retail sales and industrial output were skidding while unemployment and foreclosures surged. Even the passage (after much dickering and delay) of a $700 billion financial “stabilization program by Congress proved unable to stop a waterfall plunge in stock prices during late September and most of October. Many overseas financial exchanges sustained even greater damage. A month or so back, it still seemed possible that with quick action from Washington, America might be able to skirt anything more than a mild recession. Unfortunately, congress bickered back and forth and, even after the TARP bill passed, it took Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson a couple of weeks to figure out what to do with his new powers. In the meantime, some key developments have changed:
- New filings for unemployment insurance (a good barometer of the labor market) have spiked to their highest level since just after 9/11 .. In addition, according to the conference board’s monthly survey, many more people now say that jobs are “harder to get” than on the eve of the 1990 or 2001 recessions. The risk of a sharp retrenchment in consumer spending has grown more rapidly in the past month.
- Interest rates have surged on corporate bonds. Despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to push down the cost of borrowing, yields on investment quality corporate bonds have skyrocketed since the Lehman collapse in mid September. While juicy yields are welcome news to income investors (as long as you buy bonds that won’t default), they also mean that businesses attempting to raise funds in today’s environment face a serious cash-flow squeeze. Rather than shoulder heavy interest payments, many corporations will choose to postpone or cut back on expansion projects in coming months.
- The financial contagion has spread in an infectious form overseas, hurting several of America’s major trading partners. Governments on the European continent have been forced to bailout major banks in Britain, Germany and Belgium. The sweeping bank-rescue plan announced by E U governments on October 12 should eventually stop the flood of red ink, but investor and consumer confidence won’t return overnight.
Given these developments, plus the severity of the market selloff during the past several weeks, it is prudent to assume that a recovery for stocks (and afterward, the economy) will take longer than we might have expected as recently as a month or two ago. That is where we stand today. But where are we headed? Yes, it has been a very tough market. The big question is whether last month will go down in history as a major market bottom.
Technically and fundamentally, the stock market has all the symptoms of being near a bottom. Of course, we are in a market that has managed to defy the usual rules, so nothing can be ruled out. As you can see from the enclosed chart of the 5 & P 500 Index, we are hopeful that the bottom was reached on Friday, October 10 with the horrible intraday low of 839.80. That intraday low was tested again on Monday October 27 after worldwide stocks posted huge declines on economic worries. However, to get a real, sustainable bottom, we will be looking for evidence in the weeks ahead that buyers are growing braver and sellers less bold. Trading volume in advancing stocks should run well ahead of that in decliners -not just for a day or two, but for at least two weeks at a stretch. The tribe of stocks touching new 52-week lows should diminish substantially. Gold prices, spreads between T bill yields and bank rates and other “fear” indicators should retreat.
Based on historical precedents, markets tend to bottom when economic conditions are at their worst -and it is hard to imagine them getting worse than they are today. Fortunately, the Fed and the Treasury Department have known conditions were getting pretty bad for some time. Policy makers have therefore been enacting measures to correct the situation, the affects of which have yet to be fully felt.
Also, the decline in energy costs will eventually help halt the slide in stock prices. Oil, at the moment, is selling for under $65 a barrel, which in the short-term will reduce business expenses and increase profits. Just as high oil prices add to inflation while reducing everyone’s disposable income, lower oil prices stimulate the economy and help keep inflation in check.
Now that the election is over, the question now is what kind of performance we can expect for the economy and the markets over the next four years under President Obama. He is taking office with the economic background so bleak that almost any change over the course of his term will represent an improvement. The odds are overwhelming that stock prices will be higher in 2012 when he faces the voters again. Still, the stock market is just one part of the economy, and under Barack Obama, the United States needs to recover from a downturn whose severity has not yet been determined. He will face a budget deficit of around $500 billion when he is sworn into office -a shortfall expected to climb to $1 trillion next year. Because of the deficit, the financial climate might end up affecting the new president’s policies more than his policies will affect the financial climate. There are significant ramifications for the new Administration’s policies to deal with as far as the economic crisis as well as domestic priorities on taxes, health care, energy, the environment, labor relations and trade. Early on, we can expect a second stimulus package to help boost the economy with some of the bigger ticket terms will likely unfold towards the end of 2009. Furthermore, we can expect an increase in the capital gains rate and dividends rate from 15% to 20%.
Wall Street’s shattered confidence is slowly mending. The extreme market volatility we have experienced lately will end. Believe it or not, 500-point daily swings in the Dow are not normal. In fact, with the exception of a few trading sessions around the 1987 crash, the gigantic ups and downs we have had to deal with since the middle of September are unprecedented in the past 75 years. Nature will put a stop to it, because this degree of volatility makes it next to impossible for businesses and consumers alike to form intelligent long-term plans. The economy has to function somehow, and it will, but it can’t under these conditions. However, it may take weeks or even a few months for the volatility virus to work its way out of the system.
In summary, it is essential that we continue to be more cautious about our investments by limiting our risk. We do this by paying more attention to individual stocks and mutual funds than the market as a whole. In addition, we take additional defensive measures by taking some profits in some of our over-valued positions and limit our buying to the strongest, safest positions.
Again, thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm and it is always appreciated. Please contact me with any questions or comments.