Quarterly Investment Update – 1st Quarter 2009
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
1 st
QUARTER 2009
April 10, 2009
Dear Friends and Clients,
As we provide you the portfolio reports for the first quarter of 2009, Washington Policymakers continue to thrash about choking the economy with one hand while attempting to revive it with the other. Daunting long-term economic issues such as soaring national debt, tax increases on America’s most productive citizens; vastly expanded government controls over healthcare and energy production-plus the struggles we’ve already got with unemployment, foreclosures and plunging retail sales continue to prevail. Yet, despite the grim headlines, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has now soared over 25% since its March 9 low, the biggest percentage gain over such a brief period since July 1938.
Are our problems over? Well, not quite. But the recent surges in the major stock indexes signals that a recovery for the financial system is a lot closer than most investors thought possible just a few weeks ago. It is not that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s Private Public Investment Program (PPIP) represents a huge departure from what was proposed over the past year or so. But they finally seem to have found terms that risk -averse, profit ¬motivated investors are willing to accept. Even if banks were relieved of all their toxic loans tomorrow, many credit-worthy borrowers -businesses as well as consumers are reluctant right now to take on new projects and purchases. Falling sales have scared business managers and rising unemployment has done the same for consumers. It will take some time (months, not days) for confidence to be restored. That means, in turn, that the stock market should experience plenty of ups and downs in the weeks and months ahead.
As harsh as the current economic situation may be, let’s discuss some reasons of why the stock markets should stabilize and may be about to embark on an upward rally:
- The private sector is making strenuous efforts to adapt to the new economic realities. With credit hard to come by for just about everyone but the U. S. Government, consumers are tightening their belts. Businesses have responded by cutting costs and, equally important, prices. Lower prices for houses, cars, fuel and clothing are making up, at least in part, for diminished availability of credit. Once this adjustment process has moved further along, perhaps in the second half of 2009, the economy should be ready to grow again.
- Interest rates have tumbled on interbank loans, and are starting to fall on other types of borrowing as well. The credit crunch began in the summer of 2007, when big financial institutions, mistrusting one another’s holdings of subprime mortgages, pulled back on lending to each other. The suspicion snowballed. Now, though, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary easing, banks are charging each other only 0.5% (annualized for one-month loans-down from 4.6% a year ago. Borrowing costs for businesses and consumers have ebbed more slowly, but are headed in the right direction. As rates drop, more and more purchases and projects become affordable on credit. Demand should pick up, which would strengthen the economy.
- Stocks are fairly cheap, relative to the replacement cost of corporate assets. Some analysts estimate that the market is trading at over a 50% discount to replacement cost, which is the deepest discount since the mid 1980’s. This implies that stock prices have now skidded so far that a violent reversal seems increasingly probable.
All in all, our portfolios’ performance during the last several months of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 dramatically eroded the results of the past several years. We believe that performance can rebound just as quickly as it fell in many of our undervalued stocks and mutual funds that we own. Of course nobody knows yet whether the March 9 index lows represented the bear’s last growl, or whether prices will plumb even greater depths in the weeks ahead.
In summary, it is essential that we continue to be more cautious about our investments by limiting our risk. We do this by paying more attention to individual stocks and mutual funds than the market as a whole. In addition, we take additional defensive measures by taking some profits in some of our over-valued positions and limit our buying to the strongest, safest positions.
Again, thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm and it is always appreciated. Please contact me with any questions or comments.