Quarterly Investment Update – 2nd Quarter 2010
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
2 ND
QUARTER 2010
July 6, 2010
Dear Friends and Clients,
The rally in the stock market since March 2009 was interrupted during the second quarter by more economic problems – this time emanating from Europe. At the end of April, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the credit rating of Greece to BB-plus, which is referred to as “junk” status. Though this downgrade did not necessarily come as a shock to some investors, since, this has been anticipated for several months, money quickly piled into US Treasuries and Dollars, and out of Euros. For 13 months, from March 2009 to April 2010, share prices zoomed higher in New York and most bourses around the world. However, the months of May and June brought a great deal of doubts about the strength and durability of the economic upturn and investors responded by marking stocks down. The Dow ended the second quarter down 1082.61 points, or 10% at 9774.02, its first quarterly drop since the first three months of 2009. The Standard and Poor’s 500-stock index posted its worst quarterly performance since the final three months of 2008 when the financial crisis was in full swing by falling 11.9% during the quarter to 1030.71.
It appears that the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have managed to stem the debt crisis in the European Union for now by orchestrating a multi-billion euro bailout akin to that of the United States only two years prior. However, time will show us how much the bailout will help Greece and the European Union. While Greece represents only 2% of the economic production of the 27-member European Union, the ECB and IMF have found it necessary to bail the country out at the expense of the other countries in the EU while other member-states, such as Spain and Portugal, continue to show debt problems of their own.
Meanwhile, the European Union debt crisis prompted investors to flock to investments seen as safe heavens. Gold rose 11.9% to $1245.50, finishing the quarter just shy of its record high of $1257.20. U.S. Treasury prices also rose sharply, driving the yield significantly lower. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note finished the quarter at 2.96%, down from 3.84% at the end of March and making Treasury’s one of the best performing asset classes for the quarter. Since the end of the quarter, the yield has continued to come down even further to as low as 2.88%.
We should not be confused about the reason for the recovery of the US Dollar. Investors are again seeking the dollar as a safe haven against uncertainty and an existing debt crisis in the European Union. However, despite the perceived safety of the dollar, we must remember the US has its own debt crisis to be concerned about. As of May 2010, the US Government has posted a record 19 consecutive monthly budget deficits. For the current year, the Government projects a $1.5 trillion deficit which is even higher than the $1.4 trillion deficit for last fiscal year. Even the White House budget director stated that “the United States must tackle its deficits quickly to avoid the kind of debt crisis that hit Greece”.
We are at a tricky moment for the stock market and the global economic recovery. It’s clear, by now, that the U.S. economy will be growing more slowly in the second half of 2010 than the first. Businesses and governments are likely to reduce spending and consumers, who drive most economic growth, are not expected to take up the slack. Such factors as expired government tax credits on new home purchases as well as less stimulus spending could hold back growth. The European debt crisis could slow U.S. exports and world trade. Also, state and local governments are likely to rein in spending and raise taxes as they struggle to close budget gaps. As a result of these factors, and as expected, the Federal Reserve’s policy – making arm said on June 23, that it had decided to keep short-term interest rates near zero for “an extended period” in light of continuing threats to economic growth, including “developments abroad” as well as the persistently high unemployment rate and continuing weakness in housing and consumer spending.
Our firm continues its strategy of extracting healthy yields form bellwether equities and fixed income securities and positioning our assets for a coming inflationary environment.
As far as equities are concerned, we added new small positions in Total (TOT), RWE (RWEO), Novartis (NVS) and Sealed Air Corp (SEE). These stocks exhibit healthy yields in addition to growth potential and limited risk.
Regarding fixed income securities, we closed out our entire position in Build America Bond fund (BAB). We were able to exit BAB at a great price, anticipating a short-term surge in bonds pending the European Union’s debt crisis.
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments.