Quarterly Investment Update – 1st Quarter 2010
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
1 ST
QUARTER 2010
April 6, 2010
Dear Friends and Clients,
The stock market extended its rally during the first quarter; battling back from a steep February selloff amid continues global economic and political uncertainty. The Dow jones Industrial Average gained 428.58 points or 4.1% and the broad Standard & Poor’s 500 – stock index rose 4.9% to 1,169.43. But what direction is the economy really headed to? Familiar, trusted signposts are steering investors in three directions at once! The stock market thinks corporate profits are going to be just fine. Bonds say we are in for a slow halting economic recovery with low inflation. Gold disagrees with the other two, muttering darkly about rapid inflation ahead, possibly heading to an inflationary depression. So who is right?
Even though disagreement is the norm among the co-called financial gurus, as long as we have been investing, I can’t remember a time when the markets themselves painted such sharply conflicting pictures of what the future holds. Let’s try to rationalize what these three signpost s are telling us about the direction of the economy.
First of all, stocks are looking forward to a strong sustained upturn in company earnings. Analysts estimate that operating profits for the businesses comprising the S & P 500 Index will surge 37% this year. Bonds are not nearly so upbeat. The 10-year treasury yield peaked in at just under 4% last June and has traded sideways ever since, despite mammoth federal deficits ($1.5 trillion in the past 12 months). Meanwhile, gold hit an all-time high above $1,200 an ounce in December, before trailing off a bit lately. Somebody must be awfully worried about the value of paper money – even though the current inflation rate as reported by the authorities is only around 2%-3%.
So how do we cope with these contradictory market signals? Well, the first thing to realize is that each signpost has its own time horizon. Stock investors tend to operate on a short time horizon of six to 12 months. It is very difficult to project corporate sales and earnings beyond that frame. Bond investors take a longer view, because the rising or falling phase of the interest0rate cycle usually lasts several years. Gold investors look farthest out of all – they brood over the inexorable decline, slow or fast, in the purchasing power of the dollar.
Once we understand the time preferences of these three groups of investors, the current market environment begins to make sense. In other words, the stock market’s rocket ride since March 2009 is not foreshadowing a new economic boom. It is simply telling us that corporate bottom lines will improve dramatically in the next couple of quarters over last year’s depressed levels. Bonds, on the other hand, are cautioning us that the business rebound may throttle down in 2011 and 2012. The prospect isn’t a threat to stocks right now, but it could mean that we will need to exit some of our economically sensitive stocks later this year. Finally, as far as the long term (three to five years0 is concerned, gold is giving us a warning sign, that as it soars to new highs, it serves as an indictment of U.S. monetary and fiscal policy. Unless Washington quickly takes decisive steps to reverse decades of mismanagement, we are headed for higher inflation rates and a series of financial disruptions – probably between 2012 and 2015, when social spending on the retiring Baby boomer will explode.
Ideally, then, as long-term investors, we would like to own assets that will 1) benefit from this year’s economic growth, 2) provide a bond – like income yield when business activity slows, perhaps in 2011 and 3) protect us from the inflation that may lurking in the years ahead.
As we pointed out in the past, our strategy, of extracting healthy yields from bellwether equities and fixed income securities as well as to position our assets to the development of an inflationary environment should provide us with the desired results during this economic climate.
As far as the equity portion of our portfolios, we have added small positions in Exxon Mobile Corporation (XOM), Government Property Income Trust (GOV), Bank of NY Mellon CP New (BK), Vodafone Group (VOD) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). We sold our positions in St. Joe Company (JOE), China Mobile (CHL) and the SPDR S & P China ETF fund (GXC). Regrettably, we decided to pull the plug on China Mobile because the Chinese government is forcing companies like CHL to sacrifice its financial integrity to prop up other sectors of the economy.
In the fixed income area, Bernanke & Co. reaffirmed their position of “abnormally low” rates for an “extended period” at the March 16 th Fed meeting. Based on those comments, we don’t expect a meaningful rise in rates before late summer or early fall. Thus, most of the fixed-income portion of our portfolios are being invested in short and middle maturities. We have also continued to add positions in the exchange-traded Power Shares Build America Bond Portfolio (BAB) and the Vanguard Intermediate – Term Tax-Exempt Fund (VWITX).
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandcpa.com for a quick Retirement Calculator, our latest firm news, and Market Commentary archives.