Special Investment Update – January 18, 2012
SPECIAL INVESTMENT UPDATE
January 18, 2012
Dear Friends and Clients,
The Purpose of this update is to provide some insight to those people contemplating retirement in 2012. As we discussed in previous updates, there was a lot of uncertainty in 2011 that could spill over into 2012 which could affect your decision to retire or not to retire. The economy is still shaky, even after two –and- a- half years of supposed “recovery”. Stocks continue to go back and forth, while Treasury bills and bank deposits barely yield enough crumbs to keep a mouse alive. Unless you have a plump government pension to lean on (and even those are not totally secure these days), you may be wondering whether retiring in 2012 is really such a good idea at all. There is no crystal clear answer for everybody but I hope the following four factors will be of benefit for you to consider before taking the plunge.
The first factor to consider is your health! Have an honest conversation with yourself regarding the status of your health. If your genes, combined with the present state of health seem to point to a long lifespan, you are probably going to need more money to support you in retirement. On the other hand, if you are already struggling with significant health issues, it may make sense for you to retire as soon as you believe you have accumulated the smallest pot of gold necessary to maintain a comfortable lifestyle. Indeed, retiring at an early age could add greatly to your enjoyment of the rest of your life, and even restore some of your lost health.
The second factor to consider is your investment portfolio size, which will undoubtedly form a crucial element in your decision whether to retire in 2012. The number that really counts for a retiree is how much income one can expect the investments to generate. If annual expenses are running at, for example, $80,000, one would need at least that amount of income from the investment portfolio (minus any Social Security or Pension benefits). Income, of course, can flow from dividends and interest, or from capital appreciation. The combination is what we call “total return”. While it is impossible to know exactly what returns the financial markets will produce in the years ahead, we do know the range of returns for the past 140 years.
Let’s assume you are planning to hold a mix of stocks and bonds similar to our own portfolios (50-60% stocks, with the rest in fixed income and cash). Over the long run, that mix has generated a high enough total return to let a person draw out approximately 4% a year, for 30 years, with an annual pay hike to offset inflation and very little risk of running out of money. In other words, you should be able to withdraw an inflation – adjusted $80,000 a year from a portfolio valued around $2 million. Longevity makes a difference, however. If you believe, on the basis of family history and your personal health situation, that you are more likely to live 20 years in retirement, you can safely withdraw about 4.8% a year. Some online retirement calculators, such as the good (free) one devised by T. Rowe Price, assume somewhat lower returns for the stock market than the historical average. Even under this more conservative method, though, you should be able to pull out 3.5% a year for 30 years. An additional consideration for the potential retiree is to tilt the stock segment of your portfolio toward high- yielding names like those in our portfolios. One’s goal as a retiree is to be living on income (dividends and interest) alone so as to eliminate the need to sell stocks or mutual funds into a bad market. Use your capital gains, as they materialize, to reward yourself with special treats, such as that sea cruise you have been dreaming of, the new Town Car, the lakefront condo, whatever.
The third factor to consider is to start thinking creatively. Maybe, after adding your resources, you conclude that you have almost got enough, but not quite. In this case, your creative thinking could be channeled toward reducing your expenses or boosting you income. On the expense side, the most obvious item to concentrate on is your cost of shelter. Millions of retires have balanced their budget by moving to a smaller home. If you live in a part of the country where real estate is expensive, you may be able to save dramatically by taking a more radical step. House prices have plummeted in many Sunbelt locales. In Port Charlotte, Florida, for example, the price of a median home has dropped to about $60,000. Selling your home on the East or West Coast and moving to Arizona or Florida, or certain areas of Alabama or Georgia could solve many retirement decisions.
Furthermore, you can boost your income with part-time work. Earning up to $14, 160 per year will not affect your Social Security benefits if you are under “full” retirement age (66 if you were born in 1946); and after you reach full retirement age, you can earn as much as you like without forfeiting any benefits.
The fourth and perhaps the most important factor to consider is the Intangible Factor of what do you plan to do with your time. We do feel that it is crucial to have some notion, in advance, of how you are going to fill your retirement days. What will you do to make the time fulfilling and rewarding? If you have a solid answer to that question, you can retire in 2012 with a smile on your face. If you are not sure, our advice is to continue working for one more year at least.