Special Investment Update – March 5, 2012
SPECIAL INVESTMENT UPDATE
March 05, 2012
Dear Friends and Clients,
The year 2011 was a volatile year with a lot of ups and downs, so let us see what’s ahead down the road.
As we look into Election year 2012, these are some clouds on the horizon and, of course, the biggest is the European sovereign-debt issue. The sovereign-debt problem in Europe is enormous. They are talking about over two trillion dollars worth of bailout money for Europe. What that is telling us is that the European nations have gotten themselves way in over their heads in debt and it will take years to resolve these problems. Furthermore, in 2012, we are going to have to grapple with some other issues. We already know that China is in a slowdown, and the question is will it become something worse than that. Then finally, there is this issue of the U. S. Recession risk.
We are skating on their ice right now. We are in the stage kind of a twilight zone between growth and recession. We are not in an actual recession where the economy is contracting, but we are growing very slowly at perhaps 2% a year on Gross domestic Product (GDP). When you are in very slow growth situation, it becomes easy to tip over into recession.
The good news is that the markets have given us a nice rally since the beginning of October last year. We still have not reached the highs by any means that were reached in July of last year but we are hopeful that we will see these highs sometime in 2012. However, as we look ahead to the primary trend where we are now in terms of the “big picture”, the odds are that we will see somewhat lower prices in stocks for 2012.
As we previously discussed, the United States and most of the industrialized nations are facing a rapidly aging demographic society. It is very simple. We are getting older. As more and more people turn 65, they are drawing their stock holdings down. So this is a problematical period we are headed into and we feel it is important for people, especially those who are nearing retirement. Those who are in their late 50’s or early 60’s thinking about retirement should be prudent as well as cautious so as to preserve the capital during especially 2012 but also 2013, 2014, and 2015.
We will eventually come out of this hole, once the U. S. Government and other governments (France, Germany, Italy, Spain), have resolved some of the problems they are facing, fiscal problems caused by the demographic bulge, the baby boomers who are moving into retirement years. Something will have to be done about the entitlement issues. And it will be done, we feel, over the next two to three election cycles here in the U.S.A. and by 2016, we should be at least at the bottom of this and maybe coming out the other end. We certainly hope so.

