Quarterly Investment Update – 1st Quarter 2013
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
1 ST
QUARTER 2013
April 2, 2013
Dear Friends and Clients,
After a painful four-year slog from the financial crisis, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index pushed to an all-time high at the end of the quarter, powered by rising investor faith in the economic recovery. The S & P 500, one of the most widely followed benchmarks for stocks, closed for the quarter at a record 1569.19 as the latest flare-up of the euro-zone debt crisis appears to have ebbed.
After the impressive run the headlines stock indexes have had in the past four years, many investors feel tempted to shovel more money into stocks. Sure, the standard & poor’s 500 index has more than doubled since the March 2009 low but what will it do during the next four years? We are actually pretty positive on the outlook for stocks in 2013. Interest rates are low, the housing sector is slowly healing, corporate profits are holding up (though no longer expanding vigorously). Under these circumstances, the headline indexes should be able to log another year solidly in the green. Our primary concern is whether the market rises too far, too fast, thus causing a severe correction. In addition, many insiders (officers and directors of America’s public traded corporations) are selling their shares at a record pace. Over the past three months, insider selling has experienced some of the highest rates in the past decade. Despite a fairly good run of Q4 earnings reports, the insiders apparently feel most stocks are fully valued – and then some.
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is a reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we have tried to maintain an average asset allocation mix of 45% – 50% Equity, 45% – 50% Fixed Income and 0% – 10% cash for most of the portfolios.
The Equity portion of our portfolios remains primarily the same but exhibited more sales than purchases. We added a small position in Abbott Labs (ABT) back early in January. As you may recall, we sold the old Abbott Labs during June 2012 before it split into two companies. After the split, the new Abbott holds the medical device and consumer brands business, which we feel has greater value for potential growth. We also purchased Vodaphone (VOD) in February, which we have held a position in the past (2010) as well. During the month of March, we purchased small positions in three new companies, Apple (AAPL), McGraw-Hill (MHP) & Silver Bay Realty Trust (SBY). We feel that these three new positions offer us great value opportunities.
Apple is a name that has always intrigued us and which we have held in the past but later sold at much higher valuations. Apple has a current yield of 2.3% with the very likely possibility of a significant increase in its dividend. Apple has accumulated a massive $137 billion cash board which could be used to raise its dividend 50%, buy back $20 billion of stock annually and still not put a dent in its cash pile.
McGraw-Hill was once thought of as a stodgy print publisher but has reinvented itself in recent years. McGraw-Hill has become a highly focused provider of financial information (well-known brands include Standard & Poor’s, Platts and J.D. Power & Associates). McGraw-Hill has a current yield of 2.3% and has now sweetened its payout every year since 1974- a record matched by only a tiny percentage of publicly traded businesses.
Silver Bay Realty Trust launched its initial public offering in December 2012. SBY is the first publicly listed REIT that focuses exclusively on buying, fixing up, renting out – and eventually selling – single family homes. We established a small position in this trust as an aggressive play on the “Housing Comeback”. Prices of single – family housing starts (new homes) bottomed at different times in different parts of the country, but the national average, according to Case Shiller, made its low in the fourth quarter of 2011. Since then, prices nationally have crept up 7.3%. This trust pays no dividends and we do not expect any cash payout until 2014 at least.
Throughout the quarter, we sold several equity positions, including Niska Gas Storage (NKA), PG&E Corp (PCG), Liberty Media Interactive (LINTA), Cemex (CX), Ingersoll Rand (IR), Sealed Air Corp (SEE), Oracle (ORCL), Novartis (NVS), First Niagara Financial (FNFG) and Nustar Energy (NS).
The Fixed Income portion of our portfolios continues to remain the same for the quarter. All of our portfolios have and will continue to emphasize bonds or bond funds that offer short maturities. Throughout the quarter, we continued to purchase the iShares Barclays 20+ years Treasury Bond Fund (TLT). We are buying TLT partly for the income, with a current yield of 2.7%, but also as a hedge against a potential decline in the stock market. Stocks and T-bonds display a strong negative correlation; when one goes up, the other goes down. Should the stock market pull back substantially over the next few months, we will consider taking off the hedge. We also established a small position in Black Rock Muni-Holding Quality Fund II (MUE) for selected taxable accounts. MUE currently has a 5.5% tax free yield with the potential for upside capital appreciation. However, we should note that this is a “leveraged” fund, which means that the fund borrows money, within limits specified by law, to buy more bonds. Leverage enhances your returns in a rising market, but can hurt on the way down. As soon as Ben Bernanke starts to make noises about back tracking on his zero – interest – rate policy, we will exit this fund.
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandcpa.com for a quick Retirement Calculator, our latest firm news, and Market Commentary archives.