Quarterly Investment Update – 4th Quarter 2012
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
4 TH
QUARTER 2012
January 4, 2013
Dear Friends and Clients,
Before we get into the investment portion of our update, I would like to take this opportunity to thank those who took time from their busy schedule to attend our recent investment seminar. Ever since our inception, we have held seminars for various reasons on several occasions. As we noted in the past, the primary purpose of the seminar was to get a live update of the current tax policy as well as the economy as they relate to our investments. In addition, it gives us the opportunity to socially interact during the holiday season, especially for new clients. I also must confess that I utilize these seminars as an opportunity to attract a select few of new investment clients. We typically send out a few additional invitations of the seminar to some of our selected tax clients but most of our referrals come from our existing investment clients. In the future we plan to open up our marketing efforts to offer our wealth management services to a much broader client base. In other words, we intend to change the requirement in our Form ADV that restricts Wealth Management clients of being only clients of Farmand, Farmand, and Farmand, CPA’s, P.A. Referrals are and will always be greatly appreciated.
As far as the investment portion of our update, investors jumped for joy after congress cleared a tax bill that eliminates the most dangerous features of the fiscal cliff. Investors felt that, even though it was not the prettiest compromise, they can live with it. As you may recall, when talk of the fiscal cliff got underway last summer, the worst-case scenario called for a 39.6% top tax rate on dividends, and who knows what on capital gains. The final result, where the maximum rate on dividends and long-term capital gains will rise to just 20%, is a lot friendlier to investors. In addition, only folks earning more than $400,000 in taxable income ($450,000 for joint filers) will pay that rate. Most investors will continue to pay a maximum rate of 15% on both dividends and long-term gains. It is also a relief to know that the new rates are permanent (or as permanent as anything gets in today’s political world).
As we discussed at the seminar, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the possible outcomes that could affect planning for 2013. This tax act eliminates some of the uncertainties and that’s something to celebrate. However, the New Year’s compromise only applies to the tax side of the equation. Congress has granted itself another two months to tackle the spending side. As those issues unfold, we can expect a very heated debate and perhaps even another threat of default on the government’s debt. In short, we feel that it is a bit too early to predict a runaway bull move for stocks in 2013. With such a wide spread of plausible outcomes we intend to continue to focus our efforts on the following small certainties that we can count on during 2013:
1) Cash Yield – Dividends and interest will put money in our pockets, even if the stock market falters. Investors who insist on current cash yield will be amply rewarded.
2) Bonds & Bond equivalents – Bonds will cushion our portfolios from shocks on the equity side. Much has changed in the financial markets over the past decade but it is still true that bonds of all kinds hold their value better than stocks in a severe equity market downturn.
3) Global Diversification – According to projections by the International Monetary Fund, the emerging / developing countries of the world will increase their real output of goods and services (GDP) by 6% a year through 2017, versus only 3% for the United States.
4) Contrarian Investing – Leaning against the crowd will help you buy lower and sell higher. Typically, the stock and bond markets give you a wide – open invitation to buy or sell at least once a year, and sometimes twice. The key is to watch for occasions when investor sentiment has gone to an unsustainable extreme, accompanied by weakness in various technical indicators.
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is a reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in the fixed income portion of our portfolios.
As far as equities are concerned, we added small positions in Wendy’s International (WEN), Intel (INTC), Coca Cola (KO), Dupont (DD), Mondelez Int’l (MDLZ), British Petroleum (BP), Southern Co. (SO), Duke Energy (DUK) and Enbridge Energy Management (EEQ). We also added back Microsoft (MSFT) after we sold it at a nice profit last May. While it remains to be seen how successful the company will be in its efforts to break into mobile computing, Microsoft could still maintain a highly profitable desktop franchise over the long pull by focusing on business and government customers. We sold entire positions in Total (TOT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Pepsico (PEP), Markel Corp. (MKL), and American States Water (AWR).
The Fixed Income portion of our portfolios remained the same for the quarter as we continue to increase our exposure to high yield bond funds as well as high yield stocks. Furthermore, our strategy has and will continue to emphasize bonds or bond funds that offer short maturities. Research going back over the past two decades has shown that high-yield bonds with a short term to maturity return almost as much return as longer-dated bonds, with substantially smaller price fluctuations. On a risk-adjusted basis, the short-term bonds outperformed the high –yield universe by a margin of about 1.2 to 1. Our only addition to the fixed income portion of our portfolios is the Wells Fargo Advantage High Income (STHYX). This fund has a steady, dependable long-term track record with a current yield of 5.7%. Over the past 10 years, STHYX has generated a slightly higher total return than the high-yield peer group-but with 21% less volatility. With duration of just 3.8 years, the fund’s portfolio is turning over quickly enough to keep defaults to a manageable minimum.
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandcpa.com for a quick Retirement Calculator, our latest firm news, and Market Commentary archives.