Quarterly Investment Update – 1st Quarter 2014
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
1 ST
QUARTER 2014
April 3, 2014
Dear Friends and Clients,
What a ride! During the just ended first quarter, Wall Street’s stampeding bull celebrated its fifth anniversary with the benchmark Standard & Poor 500 stock index up 176% from its March 9, 2009 low. We are certainly grateful for our share of the gains but we continue to exercise caution as part of our core strategy. It’s going to take a while for the reality to sink in. A lot of investors are still hoping that 2014 will bring another huge leap in the U.S. stock market, along the lines of 2013. It is certainly possible. However, the evidence suggests that any sustainable uptrend for the Dow or the Standard & Poor 500 will come from lower levels. Also, since 1962, according to Strategas Research Partners, the Standard & Poor 500 index has undergone a setback of at least 14% in 10 of the midterm election years before now. In the other three cases, pullbacks ranged between 8% and 9%. If a couple of things went wrong at the same time, the market could easily stage a double-digit pullback. For instance, combine weak U.S. economic statistics with a sudden eruption of banking problems in China or Europe, and share prices could back off in a hurry.
Investing is a curious business. In early March, all the stock market gurus were celebrating the bull market’s fifth anniversary. Since then, the Ukraine-Russia standoff took an ugly turn. Then came the dubious secession referendum, and then the sanctions. Wall Street’s bubbly enthusiasm suddenly went flat. We certainly do not expect a war to erupt over Ukraine. However, investors’ skittishness over this issue, together with fears of an economic slowdown in China, Europe and perhaps even U.S.A., is setting the stage for something we have not seen in almost three years: a good, stiff stock market “correction”.
Meanwhile, the current broad stock market has gone pretty much sideways during the quarter. Judging by the headline stock indexes, the quarter ended on a kind of dull start to 2014. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ended the year’s first quarter with a slender 1.3% gain, while NASDAQ tacked on less than 1% and the DOW actually slipped a fraction of a percent. I suppose most investors are pre-occupied with basketball during “March Madness”. We are certainly hopeful that our Gators will go all the way to the national championship. For the quarter ended March 31, 2014, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index ended at 1872.34.
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is a reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion our portfolios. During the quarter, we continue to maintain an average asset allocation mix of 45%-50% Equity, 45% – 50% fixed Income and 0% – 10% cash for most of the portfolios.
As far as the Fixed Income area, we have continued to buy Emerging Markets, Master Limited Partnerships, REIT’s and Energy Stocks. Specifically, we purchased the following partial positions during the quarter: Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Equity Inc. (DEM), Jardine Matheson (JMHLY), W.P. Carey Inc. (WPC), and Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP). During the quarter, we sold two full positions in the Doubleline Total Return Bond Fund (DLTNX) and the Dodge & Cox Income Fund (DODIX).
As far as the Equity side of our portfolios, we added two positions in the real estate and telecommunication sectors, which were Telenor ASA (TELNY) and Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT). On the sell side, we also sold two full positions in Hendeson Land Developers, ADR (HLDCY) and Martin Marietta Materials (MLM).
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandcpa.com for a quick Retirement Calculator, our latest firm news, and Market Commentary archives.