Quarterly Investment Update – 2nd Quarter 2014
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
2 ND
QUARTER 2014
July 1, 2014
Dear Friends and Clients,
Stock investors are feeling confused lately and you can’t really blame them. The headline stock market indexes started edging up in mid-May to all time highs and continued to go up with record highs through June. Despite a worse than expected GDP report (the nation’s output of goods and services for the first quarter was revised downward to a 1% decline, versus the government’s initial estimate of a 0.1% increase), the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index broke yet another all-time high, closing at 1,960.23. The actual all-time high was at on June 23 when the Standard & Poor’s 500 closed at 1,962.61. Stock investors dismissed the GDP report due to exceptionally harsh winter weather in many parts of the country, which had the effect of depressing the first quarter business activity.
However, if the economy is bouncing back, as most analysts expect, why is the 10-year Treasury yield going in the opposite direction. Normally, when the economy picks up, bond yields rise, which is not happening yet. Many observers have tried to explain this contradiction by pointing to ultra-slow economic growth in Europe. This factor, along with exceptionally low yields on a global basis has the effect of helping to force down U.S. Treasury yields. In addition, the shrinking budget deficit is reducing the treasury’s borrowing requirements while the Federal Reserve continues to buy Treasuries, effectively removing that much supply from the market. With fewer bonds available for the public to purchase, it stands to reason that yields are falling. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield skidded to a six-month low of 2.438% on May 28 th . Analysts said the shallow pullback in bond prices underscores continued anxiety among investors over the global economy, with soft euro-zone expansion, an uneven US recovery and waving momentum in China. The 10-year yield has dropped from about 3% at the start of this year.
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is a reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continue to maintain an average asset allocation mix of 45% – 50% Equity, 45% – 50% Fixed Income and 0% – 10% Cash for most of the portfolios.
The quarter provided very little buying opportunities for the equity portions of our portfolios. We added to our position in Vodaphone (VOD) since they sold their 45% ownership interest of Verizon Wireless to Verizon (VZ). The company returned much of the sales proceeds to shareholders during the first quarter in the form of a large special dividend. We also purchased Pinnacle Foods (PF), maker of Birds Eye frozen vegetables, Vlassic pickles, Duncan Hines cake mixes and Wishbone salad dressings and Melco International Development Ltd. (MDEVF) or (0200.HK) on the Hong Kong Exchange, an investment holding company engaged in the leisure and entertainment businesses in Hong Kong, Macau, and the Peoples Republic of China.
We sold all of our positions in Direct TV (DTV), a highly successful core equity holding in our portfolio accounts for over a decade. We want to discuss our experience with DTV not only to showcase one winner but because this investment illustrates the process and approach we follow in the equity portion of our portfolios.
Our portfolios generally define equities as value and growth stocks with a stated dividend payout of less than the 10-Year Treasury Yield. However, sometimes we can own a company that has value in indirect ways that create part of the discount to intrinsic worth. In the case of DTV, we owned the underlying business via three different stocks over our thirteen-year holding period. Initially, in 2001 we brought GMH, the tracking stock that General Motors created for the Hughes Division that included all of its satellite businesses. By early 2004, the company had been fully spun out of GM and renamed DIRECTV Group. Over the following four years, at different opportunities we added to our position. In early 2008, John Malone exchanged Liberty Media’s (LMDIA) News Corp Shares (NWS) for the 40+% of DTV that NWS owned. We previously had purchased Liberty Media Corp, the precursor to LMDIA. In 2009, LMDIA and DTV merged. Over the next four years, the intrinsic value of the company grew as did the stock price. We began trimming our position as the price-to-value (P/V) closed and completely exited in the second quarter of 2014. In addition to selling DTV we sold all of our positions in Vulcan (VMC), the Aggregates Company as well as Wendy’s (WEN). All three positions illustrate the process and approach we follow in our equity holdings, which generally consist of value and growth stocks with a holding period of 3 – 5 years. However, as in the case of DTV, some equity holding periods last longer than others and some are permanent.
In the Fixed Income area, there was very little change in our portfolios. However, once the 10- year Treasury yield dropped to 2.5% in May, we purchased and quickly sold ProShares Ultra Short 7-10 Year Treasury (PST), an Exchange Traded Fund. We purchased these investments as a speculative hunch that interest rates have bottomed out. Needless to say, we quickly reversed course in our strategy and sold all of our positions. We feel that interest rates will continue to be low and possibly go down further before going straight up. In addition to PST, we sold the exchange traded Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund (DEM) due to the fund’s 17% weighting in China, which includes several large Chinese banks, as well as its 19% weighting in Russia.
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandcpa.com for a quick Retirement Calculator, our latest firm’s news, and Market Commentary archives.