Quarterly Investment Update – 4th Quarter 2015
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
4TH QUARTER 2015
January 4, 2016
Dear Clients and Friends,
Before we get into the investment portion of our update, we want to use this opportunity to discuss some administrative changes we made to streamline our firm’s procedures.
As we announced during our open house, Farmand Investments has created a new website as part of our commitment to bring more accessibility to our clients and friends. In addition to the website, we have developed an electronic data base which we will use to send you on-line versions of our Investment Updates as well as other information relating to your investments. Thus, beginning with this on-line version of our Quarterly Investment Update, we will be using this electronic data base to send “email delivery” to most clients instead of “U.S. Mail”. We believe this form of delivery will provide access to our investment updates in a much more timely and efficient way. In the future you will be receiving this online version only if we have your email address on file in our data base. All wealth management clients will continue to receive their performance and other portfolio reports by U.S. Mail just as they have in the past as a separate mail out. Please contact us if you do not wish to be included on our email list or you would prefer to receive everything by U.S. Mail delivery.
Also, we want to encourage you to enroll in the Charles Schwab Paperless Delivery Program. In addition to the quick access and convenience, this program will allow your accounts to pay lower commission on trades at Schwab. If you are interested in signing up for online access to your Schwab accounts, call Schwab Alliance at 800-515-2157 and please contact us if you have any questions or comments.
As far as our investments are concerned, frustration was the key word for investors during the fourth quarter of 2015, as most of the major indexes were down for the year. After a tough and volatile 2015, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed at 2043.94, down .73% for the year. The year ended with some encouraging developments, but also some disturbing ones. Very few investments gave us a rougher ride in 2015 than our energy-related names. For the year ended December 31, 2015, the exchange-traded Energy Select Sector SPDR fund (XLE), which owns all the oil and gas stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, is down over 20% for the year, even with reinvested dividends.
I am not so rash as to hazard a near-term prediction for the price of oil. However, we strongly suspect that today’s depressed levels won’t last through 2016 – as long as the Federal Reserve does not aggravate the “stealth” tightening already under way in the credit markets.
Certainly, history suggests that the rebalancing process should be in its later stages. West Texas crude has languished below its 200-day moving average for over 17 months now – by far the longest down trend since trading in NYMEX oil futures began in 1983. Also, since the end of World War II, there have only been three other cases where the price of oil tumbled 50% or more from a three- year peak. For each of those cases, the following reflects how things played out over the next 12 months:
Low Month Price High Month Price Gain
- July 1986 $11.59 July 1987 $21.34 1%
- 1998 $11.35 Dec. 1999 $26.10 129.9%
- 2009 $39.09 Jan. 2010 $78.33 100.4%
AVERAGE GAIN 104.8%
During the current cycle, we are not sure if the price of oil will double from its final low during 2016. However, we feel that a huge recovery potential of energy-related investments is ahead of us. Further out, most analysts envision a shortage of oil production developing before 2020. According to analysts at Tudor Pickering Holt, some 150 oil and gas projects globally have been delayed or cancelled in response to lower prices, jeopardizing a combined 19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day of future production. Overall, we feel that the excess inventory levels are slowly being reduced by more demand.
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is a reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continue to maintain an average asset allocation mix of 45%-55% Equity, 45%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-10% cash for most of the portfolios.
The quarter provided us very little opportunity to add any new position for both the Equity and Fixed-Income portion of our portfolios. However, for each taxable account, we analyzed each portfolio’s capital gains and losses along with their tax status to determine whether or not to “harvest” some of the losses while maintaining the same weighting for that asset class, which we did to several taxable portfolios in order to make them more tax efficient.
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandinvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news, and Market Commentary archives.