Special Investment Update – November 12, 2015
SPECIAL INVESTMENT UPDATE
November 12, 2015
Dear Clients and Friends,
Attached is a copy of the 1-year chart of the Standard & Poor 500 Index. As you can see, the all-time high for the year was set on May 20 th , when it closed at 2,134.72. Also, there was a 12.54 percent correction for the year that was set on August 24 th , when the index closed at 1,867.01. This correction was tested again on September 28 th , when the index closed at 1,881.77. The Standard & Poor 500 Index closed yesterday at 2,075 so how does it look for the rest of this year and next year?
Through year-end then, the path of least resistance for stock prices is up. But can the markets keep climbing into 2016? That is a tricky question that we will not be able to answer definitely until we see more evidence of the state of the economy.
Over the next few months, we will be watching several benchmarks, either to confirm that the bull is regaining his strength or to change our strategy in a more cautious direction.
One of the biggest benchmarks we will be watching is forward looking economic indicators. A U.S. recession accompanied by a collapse in corporate earnings, would sound the death knell for stocks. The weekly tally of initial unemployment claims is a crucial indicator of the state of the economy. Months before each of the past three recessions began (1990-91), 2001 and (2007-09), the weekly tally of initial unemployment claims had started to tick up. This is definitely an area which we will be monitoring.
Another big benchmark is the U.S. credit spreads. After the soft monthly payroll report for September, we do not expect the Federal Reserve to have any rate increase until at least December and most likely in the first quarter of 2016. Even with the Federal Reserve standing pat, however, yields in the corporate bond market have been rising since the summer of 2014 on their own. Widening spreads between medium quality (BBB-rated) corporate yields and Treasury yields of comparable maturity represent a stealth tightening of credit by the free market-not the Federal Reserve. In order for Wall Street’s bull to continue, the BBB spread should narrow.
Often, the market’s own behavior provides a clue to what is next for share prices due to the stock market breadth. As we move into the final weeks of 2016, we will be looking for evidence that not only the blue chips but also large numbers of individual stocks are joining in the market rally. For example, the cumulative daily New York Stock Exchange advance/decline should surpass its July peak before the end of 2015.
There are many myths about the stock market. One historical truth, however; is that the fourth quarter of the year usually brings investors a dose of seasonal good cheer. In the years since 1950, the Standard & Poor 500 index has posted a gain in 80 percent of the final trimesters – the highest success rate of any calendar quarter. Those are strong odds, and they bode well for the concluding weeks of 2015.
Most economists think growth in the U.S. economy has been strengthening since the July-September quarter ended. The Commerce Department recently said that the economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, grew at a tepid annual rate of 1.5 percent in the July-September quarter, far below the 3.9 percent rate of the previous quarter. Many predict that growth in the October-December quarter will rebound to around 2.5 percent annual rate. For all of 2015, the economy is expected to expand around 2.3 percent, near last year’s modest 2.4 percent, despite persistent economic weakness around the world.
All in all, we look forward to a nice fourth quarter rally to move stock prices higher due to several factors. The U.S. economy continues to resist the undertow from China and other global trouble spots. While the manufacturing sector at home has slowed noticeably in recent months, the much larger service sector is still expanding at a robust pace. First-time jobless claims also remain pinned near a 42-year low, indicating strong demand for labor.
Another factor to consider is that the Federal Reserve does not want to upset the applecart. At its September meeting, the nation’s central bank again declined to raise money market interest rates by even a smidgen, arguing that “recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat”. Given the degree of caution still evident by most investors, the marquee equity indexes may climb all the way back up to their spring-summer peaks before the renewed buying interest exhausts itself.
Again, we want to thank you very much for joining us tonight. We also want to thank you for placing your trust and confidence in our firm and it is always appreciated. May you have a wonderful festive holiday season and a healthy and prosperous New Year.