Quarterly Investment Update – 3rd Quarter 2009
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
3 RD
QUARTER 2009
October 2, 2009
Dear Friends and Clients,
A little over six months ago, the financial world was in a panic, and stocks were crashing around the globe. Today, financial advisors are more upbeat as investors are experiencing one of the most spectacular market rebounds on record. From the March 9 closing low, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index soared 58% in just 133 trading sessions -the steepest ascent in such a compressed time frame since 1933. Most foreign markets in the industrialized countries have fared almost as well in local -currency terms and some of the emerging markets have done even better.
We have also enjoyed some impressive returns in all of our portfolios but this is no time to be smug. History suggests that it won’t be too long before the market’s trajectory starts to flatten out and possibly throw additional caution into our investment strategy. Furthermore, beyond the market’s own behavior, there are certain economic signs that we find troubling and that call the rally into question.
The U.S. government is on track to run a budget deficit of about $1.5 trillion in the fiscal year ending September 30, 2009, more than triple last year’s then-record deficit of $454 billion. Moreover, the Obama administration is forecasting another mind -boggling $1.26 trillion deficit in the fiscal year ahead. These are big numbers. As a percent of the nation’s total output of goods and services, the deficit has never been larger in the past century, except during World War I and II. Yet, the dire consequences of these fiscal excesses have not affected the bond market. In fact, Treasury yields have dropped rather sharply over the past couple of months -from 4% on the 10-year note in mid -June to below 3.5% lately. The reason for this is probably due to the Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke forcing interest rates on short -term money down to almost zero. Once Bernanke withdraws his emergency measures and starts raising interest rates, bond yields will pop up significantly.
With the third quarter of 2009 now in the books, we are approximately one year beyond the $613 billion Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. Since that time, the monetary base in the United States has approximately doubled to $1.80 trillion. An $853 billion increase in excess reserves contributed to the majority of this rise. Essentially, this historic excess of base money in the Federal Reserve System serves as a backstop for the glut of bad loans still held by many financial institutions, preventing the prices of banks’ troubled assets from naturally adjusting to lower levels.
Over the past 12 months there has been much debate as to the implications of allowing such a large amount of excess reserves to exist in the financial system. To put the $853 billion increase into context, this figure has never measured more than $5 billion since its initial recording in 1959, with the exception of a one-time spike to $19 billion in September 200l. Abnormally high excess reserves warrant concern because a larger monetary base introduces much greater inflationary risk into the economy, since banks will have more money to lend to their customers thereby expanding the money supply. Yet, for the time being, consumers continue to struggle with high debt and banks continue to stockpile this money rather than lending it out. Consumers, however, have paid down their debt by more than $100 billion since this time last year, and they are currently decreasing their debt at a rate of 10% per year, according to the latest Federal Reserve statistics.
In summary, we’re dealing with an economy and market very different from what we got used to during the “good old days” of 1982-2000. There’s more uncertainty. Up trends are likely to be shorter and down trends more sudden and unforgiving. We’re adapting -in part, by selling more frequently and reinvesting the proceeds in the strongest and safest stocks and mutual funds. We will continue to take profits in some of our over-valued equity positions, as we believe prices may have run up too far in the near-term. Despite improved sentiment regarding the economy, the markets must contend with various economic and political issues in the coming months. In consideration of these issues, we do not intend to tie up the fixed income portion of our assets at a fixed rate of more than six or seven years. Beyond this point, the resale value of our bonds, and other fixed assets, can undergo wide fluctuations. We are also keeping the average maturity of our fixed income portfolios at five years or less.
It is important to note that, in every market environment, many investing opportunities exist which offer conservative and attractive risk-adjusted returns. Our first priority is the preservation of your capital and we continue to monitor the markets in order to achieve your goals and provide you with the value of our integrated wealth management services. Again, thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me with any questions or comments.