Quarterly Investment Update – 4th Quarter 2009
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
4 TH
QUARTER 2009
January 8, 2010
Dear Friends and Clients,
As we bid adieu to 2009, let’s take a moment to count our blessings. The old year turned out happier for the markets than any of us had a right to expect.
Yes, it is certainly nice that the S & P Index held onto its gains through the end of 2009, increasing 5.5% in the 4th quarter, and surging 23.5% for the year. But I am even happier about what didn’t happen.
For one thing, despite their best efforts, the Democratic-controlled Congress still has not got ‘around to raising our taxes. Granted, they are working overtime on it, and they will undoubtedly succeed at some point. The Bush -era breaks for dividends and capital gains sunset at the end of 2010. What’s more, both the House and Senate versions of the healthcare “reform” include tax increases that will probably affect all of us hard. However, they did not get very far in terms of increasing taxes this past year and that is something to celebrate.
The biggest event that didn’t happen, of course, is the collapse of the financial system and the advent of the Second Great Depression. We came frighteningly close in February and early March. However, the application of a trillion dollars worth of band aid by the government stopped the unfolding calamity and avoided the total-meltdown scenario.
Utilizing a $700 billion financial bailout and historically low interest rates, the government thus far has stabilized the economy. The cost of stabilization: a $1.4 trillion U. S. budged deficit in 2009, an estimated $1.5 trillion budget deficit for the government’s 2010 fiscal year, and a monetary base growing vociferously. In our 3 rd quarter letter, we noted the excess reserves held at the Fed had increased by $853 billion year-over-year. Since our last update in the third quarter, those excess reserves have ballooned more than 23% to $1.06 trillion.
There will be many challenges for investors to face in 2010. We will have to work hard to keep ‘our gains safe from the erratic and sometimes downright tricky behavior of both Wall Street and Washington.
As we plan for the New Year, the following factors suggest that the recovery in the economy and financial markets will continue:
- Interest rates (for creditworthy borrowers anyway) remain low across the maturity spectrum, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive easing of monetary policy.
- Layoffs are subsiding, and the economy should soon begin to create more jobs than
we are losing -a key to a revival of consumer spending.
- Businesses have drastically cut costs, setting the stage for a dramatic rebound in profits even if sales only rise modestly. Consensus analyst’s estimates call for the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to report a healthy 23% increase in operating profits in 2010.
At the same time, we have to recognize several risks that temper our bullishness:
- Stocks, in general, are no longer giveaway cheap. Even if there are some upward revisions in earnings estimates and at current 15x estimated 2010 operating earnings, the S & P is estimated to appreciate in the range of 10% -15%.
- Interest rates can’t stay at rock bottom forever, particularly given the federal government’s massive borrowing needs. A sudden spike up, possibly triggered by a rapid decline in the foreign exchange value of the dollar, could cause a major headache for stock market investors.
- Congress may go on the tax warpath. The House and Senate are currently hammering out a new trillion-dollar spending plan (Obama Care) without specifying how it will be paid for. Should House Speaker Pelosi succeed in imposing her health surtax, the total tax on capital gains would jump 69% in 2011 for investors in the top income tax bracket. This is not a welcome prospect and could potentially be the source of much stock market volatility as the details get hammered out. This, among other events, could easily lead to a long-overdue 8% -10% “correction” of the market’s huge gains since March 9, perhaps in the first quarter.
So, what is an investor to do in such an economic climate? Our firm’s strategy involves a two-pronged approach: 1) continue our fundamental policy of extracting healthy yields from bellwether equities and fixed income securities, 2) position our clients’ assets to respond promptly to the development of an inflationary environment whereby the Federal Reserve will be forced to reduce the massive excess reserves from the system.
To achieve our first goal of receiving a healthy income from high-yielding bellwether securities, we will maintain our exposure to such securities and add to our positions as valuations permit. As you know, these securities are vital to our investment strategy of capital preservation and income generation. During the past several months, we have made an intensive effort to re-design our portfolio reports with the sole purpose of helping each of you to become better informed regarding your investment goals. Specifically, we modified the classification of the investment holdings on the portfolio statement 50 that you would be able to see a better stratification of your portfolio in relation to its allocation between “Equity” and “Fixed” investments.
To achieve our second goal of positioning portfolios for changes in the economic environment, especially concerning inflation, we have taken some positions to gain exposure to increasing interest rates in the event of any inflationary pressure. Because it is· difficult to predict just when the big upturn in rates will occur, we have continued to invest our fixed income portion of our portfolios in short-term and middle maturities of four to eight years. Specifically, we have used some of our cash reserves to purchase Vanguard GNMA Fund (VFIIX), the I Shares Barclays 1-3 year Credit Bond Fund (CSJ) and Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt Bond Fund (VWITX), with current yields of approximately 4%, 3.9% and 3.79% respectively. We have also purchased the Freddie Mac step-up bonds and classified these in the intermediate maturity category, even though they carry a nominal maturity of 15 years. These bonds yield 4% – 4)1,% at the outset, but they step up to 5% after 5 years, 6% after another four years and 7% after another three years. Thus, you are never more than five years away from the next “pay hike”.
Expanding upon our second goal, we have also started allocating a modest percentage of our wealth to long-term bonds once the benchmark 10-year Treasury note reached our trigger of the 3.80% yield. Specifically, we have been buying the Power Shares Build America Bond Portfolio (BAB). These bonds are taxable debt issued by states and local authorities and is partially subsidized by the U. S. Treasury with a current yield of 5.7%.
Furthermore, in an effort to remove some underperforming stocks and further diversify our risk outside of the United States, we sold large positions in EBay, Inc. (EBAY) and Microsoft (MSFT) during the quarter. Most of the proceeds from those sales were used to purchase shares of China Mobile (CHL) and SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) as well as some electric utilities. In addition to the attractive yields, we saw these firms as undervalued from a long-term perspective and believe we entered these positions at competitive prices.
As we enter a new year, especially 2010, I encourage you to review and update your financial plan. Taxes are almost certainly going up at the end of 2010, and may do so sooner if some kind of health care “reform” package clears Congress. A review of your retirement and estate planning goals are an essential part of your financial plan. I want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to sterile you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. As always, please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Best wishes for a Happy New Year!