Quarterly Investment Update – 1st Quarter 2012
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
1 st
QUARTER 2012
April 3, 2012
Dear Friends and Clients,
The first quarter ended with all the major stock averages surging back up to a fresh peak for the year. The Standard & Poor 500 Index closed at 1408.47, up 12% for the quarter. The Wall Street Journal credited this rally due to “signs of an easing to Europe’s debt troubles and a strengthening of global economy”.
Three cheers for irrationality! Reasonable investors often bemoan the unreasonableness of stock markets – and there has certainly been plenty of irrationality driving the stock markets’ 28% rally since last October. Has the U. S. Government taken even one tiny baby step toward cleaning up its massive fiscal mess? Is the economy any closer to not needing “life support” in the form of artificially low interest rates? The good news for this rally is that it allowed us to exit some of our equity holdings with the goal of increasing the fixed income portion of our portfolios. However as we look ahead to the primary trend where we are now in terms of the ‘big picture”, the odds are that we will see somewhat lower prices in stocks for 2012.
As we look into Election year 2012, there are some clouds on the horizon and, of course, the biggest is the European sovereign-debt issue. The sovereign-debt problem in Europe is enormous. They are talking about over two trillion dollars worth of bailout money for Europe. What that is telling us is that the European nations have gotten themselves way in over their heads in debt. This is government (sovereign) debt and it will take years to resolve these problems. Furthermore, in 2012, we are going to have to grapple with some other issues. We already know that China is in a slowdown, and the question is will it become something worse than that. Then finally, there is this issue of the U. S. Recession risk.
We are skating on thin ice right now. We are in a type of a twilight zone between growth and recession. We are not in an actual recession where the economy is contracting, but we are growing very slowly at perhaps 2% a year on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). When you are in very slow growth situation, it becomes easy to tip over into recession. So these are some of the clouds on the horizon that we will be watching with a very cautious eye throughout 2012.
As we previously discussed, the United States and most of the industrialized nations are facing a rapidly aging demographic society. It is very simple. We are getting older. As more and more people turn 65, they are drawing their stock holdings down. So this is a problematical period we are headed into and we feel it is important for people, especially those who are nearing retirement. Those who are in their late 50’s or early 60’s thinking about retirement should be prudent as well as cautious so as to preserve the capital during especially 2012 but also 2013, 2014, and 2015.
We will eventually come out of this hole, once the U. S. Government and other governments (France, Germany, Italy, Spain), have resolved some of the problems they are facing, fiscal problems caused by the demographic bulge, the baby boomers who are moving into retirement years. Something will have to be done about the entitlement issues. And it will be done, we feel, over the next two to three election cycles here in the U.S.A. and by 2016, we should be at least at the bottom of this and maybe coming out the other end. We certainly hope so.
Our investment strategy remains the same. We continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is a reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in the fixed income portion of our portfolios. Our goal continues to be to increase the fixed portion of our portfolio by building up holdings of bonds and bond-like substitutes such as divided-rich, low-volatility stocks including selected Master Limited Partnerships (MLP’s) and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT’s).
As far as equities are concerned, we continue to take advantage of the volatility by adding small positions in selected stocks such as Enerplus Corp (ERF), California Water Service (CWT), Washington Real estate Investment Trust (WRE), Madison Square Garden (MSG), Lamar Advertising Co. (LAMR), and Wellpoint (WLP)). We also raised cash by selling our entire positions in China Petroleum & Chemical (SNP), Tata Motors (TTM), Ratheon Company (RTN), Fair Issac (FICO), and News Corp (NWS).
As far as the fixed-income portion of our portfolios is concerned, we continue to keep a safe distance away from Treasuries of all maturities except municipal bonds, which we purchased when prices were much lower than today’s prices. All in all, our fixed income strategy remained the same throughout the quarter.
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firms as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandcpa.com for a quick Retirement Calculator, our latest firm news, and Market Commentary archives.