Special Investment Update – June 6, 2012
SPECIAL INVESTMENT UPDATE
June 6, 2012
Dear Friends and Clients,
Millions of investors around the globe are fidgety right now hoping stocks will not perform another summer bungee jump like the heart-stoppers of 2010 and 2011. We expected a “correction” but not another 20% plunge. Please!
The purpose of this special update is to help calm your nerves by providing you with a clearer perspective on the market’s likely path through the summer and out to year – end. From last October to early April, U.S. investors gradually laid aside their concerns about the economy – and bought stocks. By the end of this period, most players large and small were feeling pretty good. Since the first week in April, though, the investor mood has noticeably darkened. We are in the season of the year – basically from May 1 – October 31- when history tells us to be on the lookout for deeper and more frequent pullbacks. In 2010, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, measured on a closing basis, tumbled 16% from its spring high to its summer low. In 2011, the high was reached in late April and the low in early October, for a total decline of 19.4%.
Many analysts still feel that European officials have failed to stem their crisis, which is now in its third year. However, the European authorities seem more willing this year than before to step in aggressively and support their banking system. In addition, some gauges of U.S. economic health (such as industrial production, housing starts, jobless claims and consumer sentiment) are sending out stronger readings today than they did 12 months ago. Thus, we feel that any mid-year market dip is likely to be shallower than the 2011 episode.
Certainly, we have to reckon with the possibility, even though we feel it is still fairly remote, that Europe will drag the rest for the world, including the United States, into another economic slump. More likely, though, we are facing a somewhat less dire outcome than that. Most forward-looking U.S. business indicators remain pretty healthy. If so, the financial markets will eventually snap out of this painful midcourse “correction” and get back on a bullish track, probably late in the third quarter or early in the fourth. Many of the assets, such as gold, oil and other natural resources that have been hurt the most in recent weeks will rebound dramatically.
Let us now step back for a little lesson in investment wisdom. Volatility frightens investors, particularly when prices are falling. However, it is important to remember that fluctuating prices-even sharply fluctuating prices-are, and have always been, a feature of the investment landscape.
Let us take stocks for example. Over many decades, it has been perfectly normal for blue chip stocks to ride up (or down) 15%-25% within the space of a year. Small caps and other issues of a more speculative bent typically fluctuate 30% or more in a 12-month period. You should expect these roller-coaster lurches if you plan to invest in individual stocks. But what should we do about them? First of all, we try to keep our eyes focused primarily on the big picture – the forest, not the trees. We try to stay focused on the overall progress of our portfolios. If our holdings are properly balanced between equity stocks and fixed income securities and diversified among individual securities, we should have plenty of good news to celebrate. Of course, we do not want to ignore the individual pieces of our portfolios. Once we take our analysis down to the micro level of an individual investment, though, we always ask ourselves: “What kind of return is this investment likely to deliver from now on? If some event has occurred that will impair a company’s profits for years to come, we will most likely sell as expeditiously as possible. On the other hand, market declines are often merely temporary. In such cases, where we funnel new money into the investment, we can expect a higher return than before. The lower we buy, the richer the prospective gains. That is how we make “volatility” our friend.
Nobody has a magic formula to determine whether a price set back is only fleeting. However, the weight of evidence strongly suggests that the recent downturn in oil, gold and other natural resources will pass before long. Yes, there is a risk that further economic weakness could drive these assets lower. However, we know that central banks around the world are frantically creating money in an effort to avoid a 2008 – style deflationary relapse.
In the meantime, we will continue to position ourselves in a more defensive stance than usual, with the majority of our combined portfolios being allocated with a minimum of 50% in equity and 50% in fixed securities.