Quarterly Investment Update – 2nd Quarter 2012
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
2ND QUARTER 2012
July 03, 2012
Dear Friends and Clients,
Nearly three months after the Dow began its decent in early April, investors are still scratching their heads. Has this pesky stock market “correction” just about run its course, or is a new and terrible downswing under way? Granted nobody has a crystal ball, but we can make some educated guesses, while pretesting ourselves against the unknowns. For the quarter ended June 30, 2012, the major stock averages ended on a positive note as investors cheered European leaders’ progress on the regions debt problems. The Standard & poor’s 500 Index was up to 8.36% to close at 1,362.16.
The stock market’s near – 10% drop from April to early June has done its job, sweeping away the complacency and overconfidence that had built up among investors since the important October 2011 low. We are now at a fork in the road. Down one path, conditions could get a lot worse in a hurry. If the European Union falters in its efforts to head off a Spanish banking crisis, an already stumbling European economy could lurch into freefall. China appears to be running out of tricks to keep its distorted bubble economy growing at a hyperkinetic pace. Here at home, high unemployment and slow growth in personal incomes does not leave much of a safety margin if the rest of the world slides into recession.
Down the other path, there are compensating positives, which we should not ignore. Central banks around the world fear another 2008-style crisis and are bending every effort to prevent it. Furthermore, some encouraging things have happened in the past few years, particularly in the United States, including the following:
- Corporations and households alike have whittled down their debt levels and built up cash reserves.
- Banks have replaced all the capital they lost in the Great Recession, and more. The United States banking system is far better equipped to deal with potential loan losses today than it was five or ten years ago.
- Housing, the bomb that nearly flattened the United States economy, is now in the early stages of recovery. Prices are taking longer to find a solid footing but new-home starts have climbed 50% since hitting bottom in the spring of 2009.
- America is extending its global lead in the ley info-tech industry and our domestic energy industry is enjoying a renaissance. Just as revolutionary, in its own way, is the feverish drilling for oil and natural gas in shale deposits throughout the United States. In time, cheaper energy may help spark a broad revival of America’s manufacturing sector.
Our biggest concern about the stock market in the second half of 2012 is that Washington might take us to the edge of a “fiscal cliff” before Congress and the President work out a compromise to head off the steep tax hikes slates to kick in next January. We are hopeful that proposals for a grand fiscal bargain dominate the fall campaign nationally, with both sides vying to put forward the more credible plan. This would be great news for stocks.
During the quarter, we sold Abbott Languages (ABT), one of our long-term holdings at a nice gain to raise some cash. ABT is planning to split into two separate companies – the pharmaceutical business and the medical devices business. Once this spinoff happens later this year, we will probably revisit ABT’s medical devices business a long-term holding. We also sold Microsoft (MSFT), stock that we have owned at various points in the past decade. We would be willing to go back into MSFT if the stocks dip another 8%-10% from today’s level. We also sold two banks early in the quarter – J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) and wells Fargo (WFC). We felt that banks, in general, are known for their vulnerability to market downturns and since two banks stocks had a nice increase, we decided to cash in those gains.
As far as our stock buying is concerned, we continues to focus on dividend-rich blue ship like Proctor & Gamble (PG) and Emerson Electric (EMR). We have also continued add stocks in oil, gold and other natural resources such as Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Enerplus Corporation (ERF), Quicksilver Resources (KWK), Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) and Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM).
The Fixed Income portion of our portfolios remains the same for the quarter. We have continued to increase our exposure to individual bonds as well as high-yield bonds such as Vanguard High-Yield Corporation Fund (VWEHX). As the stock market was bottoming June 1, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed at 1.47% the lowest for that maturity since the founding of the American Republic. An enormous “fear bubble” has driven treasuries to this level.
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is a reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in the fixed income portion of our portfolios.
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandcpa.com for a quick Retirement Calculator, our latest firm news, and Market Commentary archives.