Quarterly Investment Update – 3rd Quarter 2012
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
3 rd
QUARTER 2012
October 02, 2012
Dear Friends and Clients,
Twelve years and counting, investors have waited a long time for the stock market to return to its boisterous winning ways of 1982 – 2000. We have enjoyed a pair of vigorous “cyclical” bull markets, from 2002 to 2007 and from 2009 to the present, both of which have generated worthwhile profits. Nonetheless and despite those two recoveries the Standard & Poor’s 500 index – the institutional benchmark for U.S. stocks – is still hovering around 10% below where it stood in March 2000. The current advance dating back to March 2009 is showing multiple signs of old age and evidence is mounting for a major top in the not too distant future.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has soared 113% since the major bottom in March 2009. The latest quarter’s gains were fuelled by the stepped-up efforts of the European Central Bank to aid the euro zone as well as the Federal Reserve’s announcement on September 13 th of new stimulus measures for the U. S. economy. For the quarter ended September 30, 2012 the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed at 1440.67, up 5.75% for the quarter.
As far as the economy is concerned, there is a fierce tug-of-war in the financial markets. Around the globe, signs of economic slowdown are mounting. Even in the good ole USA, more businesses are experiencing slower activity than faster. Similar gauges for China and Europe have reflected an even sharper contraction. The outlook for world economic growth over the next few quarters is sketchy at best. Furthermore, it is becoming painfully obvious that each new round of monetary stimulus is having less and less of an impact on both the financial markets and the real economy.
As we noted in the past, these technical worries, while keenly relevant to the 2013 market outlook, do not spell eternal doom for stocks. In fact, investors who can afford to hang on for the long – term will almost certainly do better in equities than in bank accounts or government bonds. Stock valuations have come down a long way from the crazy days of the late 1990’s.
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is a reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in the fixed income portion of our portfolios.
As far as equities are concerned, we purchased and sold Facebook during the quarter. We feel that Facebook has great profit potential once they succeed in taking advantage of their mobile users. It is well known that mobile usage of Facebook’s products is a weakness for the company, as its mobile apps are largely non-monetized and its ability to do so remains unproven. Thus, we sold our entire position but we may re-visit this issue at a later date. We added small positions in Wellpoint (WLP), Total (TOT), and Wendy’s International (WEN). We sold positions in Worthington Industries (WOR), Canadian Oil Sands (COSWF), Cellcom Israel (CEL), Sprint (S), AmerisourceBergen (ABC), Washington Post Co. (WPO), and Pfizer Inc (PFE).
The Fixed Income portion of our portfolios remained the same for the quarter. We have continued to increase our exposure to high yield bond funds as well as high yield stocks. We added PIMCO Income D (PONAX), a multi-sector bond fund with a current yield of 6.51%. We also added Pembina Pipeline Corp (PBA) to replace Government Properties Income Trust (GOV). Pembina Pipeline Corp. has a current yield of 6% with monthly distributions. We also purchased a couple of high-yielding stocks. We purchased PG & E Corp (PCG), a utility stock with a current yield of 4.2% – more than double a 10-year Treasury note. We also purchased Waste Management (WM), the trash hauler with a current yield of 4.4%, which is more than the longest-dated Treasury bond.
During the end of the quarter, we also added a position in long-dated Treasuries through the exchange-traded iShares Barclays 20+ years Treasury Bond Fund (TLT). Our rationale for buying Treasuries is not that they carry such a liberal interest coupon, which has a current yield of 2.8%. However, a position in treasury bonds could generate nice capital gains if the economy and stock market run into some rough spots in 2013.
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandcpa.com for a quick Retirement Calculator, our latest firm news, and Market Commentary archives.