Quarterly Investment Update – 3rd Quarter2014
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
3 RD
QUARTER 2014
October 2, 2014
Dear Friends and Clients,
The much-awaited stock market “correction” came a little late and it may already be gone. At this point, we can not be sure whether the August 7 closing lows for the headline U.S. stock indexes will prove to be the final lows for the second half of 2014, even though the odds are looking good. While it is clear that business activity has picked up steam since the first quarter’s weather – induced stall, gauges such as industrial production, retail sales and payroll employment as well as the critical price of crude oil, suggest an economy moving along at a solid but moderate pace. This would imply little risk of recession over the next few quarters, but little chance of a runaway locomotive with rapid inflation either. Furthermore, with Europe on the ropes and China in a lull, it seems unlikely that foreign trade will spark a dramatic acceleration of U.S. growth during the first few quarters of 2015.
The third quarter ended on a positive note for the economy bringing over six months of solid job gains, strong company earnings and a bevy of corporate merger deal news that contributed to the rally, which is part of a bull market that has been going on for more than five and one-half years. Stocks, in particular, have put a remarkable performance this summer. Defying the historical pattern of weakness during the middle months of a mid –term election year, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 6% since the historically “worst six months”, that began May 1 st . Even with minor pullbacks in January, July and September, however, the headline U. S. stock indexes have held up remarkably well during 2014. Yet, despite all, the institutional benchmark for U. S. equities, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index ended closing at 1,972.29, up almost 7% for year-to-date.
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is a reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continue to maintain an average asset allocation mix of 45% – 50% Equity, 45% – 50% Fixed Income and 0% – 10% Cash for most of the portfolios.
During the quarter, volatility provided us with a few buying opportunities for the equity portions of our portfolios. This volatility was due primarily to anxiety about the global economic recovery, geopolitical tensions and how the market will handle rising interest rates. We added to some of our existing positions, including American Electric Power Co. (AEP), British Petroleum (BP), Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) and Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR). We also purchased Pinnacle Foods (PF), maker of Birds Eye frozen vegetables, Vlassic pickles, Duncan Hines cake mixes and Wishbone salad dressings ; Mattel Incorporated (MAT), manufacturer of Fisher-Price, Barbie dolls, toys and board games; and United Technologies Corp (UTX), an American multinational industrial conglomerate – the maker of Pratt & Whitney jet engine, Otis elevators, carrier air conditioning and refrigeration equipment and Sikorsky helicopter. TransMontaigne Partners (TLP), a master limited partnership that transports and provides terminals and storage facilities for refined petroleum products.
As far as sales for the quarter in the equity portion of our portfolio, we sold all of our positions in Seventy Seven Energy (SSE)), a spinoff from Chesapeake Energy as well as Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM), a spinoff from Rayonier Inc. We also sold our entire position in Madison Square Garden (MSG) and we sold some of our positions of Vodafone Group (VOD) in most of the taxable accounts.
In the Fixed Income area, there was very little change in our portfolios. We added a position in Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Smalls-Cap Dividend ETF (DGS) to replace Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Equity Inc. ETF (DEM), which we sold last quarter. We feel that DGS, which consists of small cap dividend stocks, will actually provide a safer and more profitable vehicle for taking advantage of the growth of emerging market than DEM, which consists of large –cap stocks. We also added a position in Nuveen Floating Rate Income Fund (JFR), which invests in corporate bank loans that carry an adjustable rate, plus shorter-duration high yield bonds. We also added to our existing position of the Kinder Morgan Energy Companies by purchasing Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI). As was announced last month, KMI is planning to simplify its corporate structure by absorbing the two pipeline limited partnerships KMI operates, Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) and Kinder Morgan Management (KMR), which we already own in our portfolio. As far as sales during the quarter in the fixed income area, we sold our entire position in the Vanguard Intermediate – Term Investment Grade Bond Fund (VFICX). VFICX is a well regarded fund but yields less than the other fixed income bond funds that we own.
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandcpa.com for a quick Retirement Calculator, our latest firm’s news, and Market Commentary archives.