Quarterly Investment Update – 4th Quarter 2014
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
4 TH
QUARTER 2014
January 2, 2015
Dear Friends and Clients,
Stocks delivered again in 2014. Even after a poor start in January and downside pressure in October and December, the U.S. market climbed 11.4 percent and the year close to record level. The solid gain pushed the bull rear for stocks into its sixth year, the longest such steak since the 1990’s. Both stocks and bonds rallied in the past year as the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the globe kept easy money flowing into the economy and financial markets. However, the New Year will pose a fresh challenge. While cheaper oil is a huge plus for consumers, it is also a serious obstacle for an industry that has bolstered the U.S. economy over the past five years. Also, for the first time since the global financial crisis began in 2007, the Federal Reserve is making noises about raising interest rates, however gingerly.
The 2014 mid-terms election resulting with regards to both Houses of Congress is firmly in the hand of one party while the other party retains the White House. Even though we do not expect any major change in economic policy over the next two years, we are hopeful that some hi-partisan issues could be resolved. The three areas of particular interest for investors to look forward to are Corporate Tax Reform, World Trade and Energy Policy.
As far as the energy sector is concerned, oil prices (basis West Texas Intermediate Crude) were extremely volatile during the past year. During the first half of 2014, oil prices pushed higher, from a low of less than $92 a barrel in January to almost $108 in mid-June. The global economy seemed to be picking up and with it, energy demand. Then several global issues, regarding economic growth rattled investors. Europe skidded back toward recession. Japan’s industrial recovery stalled. China’s growth slowed as did that of emerging economies generally. This caused the markets to abruptly reverse with “black gold” plunging almost 50% from its June peak to a recent low of around $52 per barrel. We certainly should be prepared for prices to go lower before finding a solid bottom. However, we continue to believe that the U.S. oil and gas industry has several years of good growth ahead of it. Fracking and other advanced technologies are constantly improving and will keep domestic oil and gas competitive on the world market.
Could anything go wrong? Absolutely! Even if oil prices stabilize and Congress and President Obama manage to come together on a few substantive policy points, Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve could negate the favorable trend by tightening credit, especially by boosting overnight interest rates too abruptly.
Our 2015 outlook for the economy remains the same as it was in 2014. As far as oil is concerned, we feel that as long as we continue to have a slow but steadily growing global economy, oil prices should stabilize near their recent lows, and sometime during the end of the first or second quarter, will begin to creep back up. As crude oil rebounds, shares of the energy industry’s stronger players will snap back dramatically.
The headline U.S stock indexes will likely continue to advance at a moderate, 2014 –style pace at least until we get some indication that the Federal Reserve is about to pull the trigger on interest rates. .
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is a reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continue to maintain an average asset allocation mix of 45%-50% Equity, 45%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-10% cash for most of the portfolios.
Opportunities in the equity portions of our portfolios, we added new positions, including Adidas AG (ADDYY), maker of athletic and sports lifestyle products worldwide; Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN), a publicly owned asset management holding company; DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc.(DWA), a developer and producer as well as exploiter of animated films and associated characters worldwide; Consol Energy, Inc. (CNX), together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated energy company in the United States and Vivendi Societe’ Auonyvie (VIVEF), with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the content, media and telecommunication business primarily in France and the rest of Europe, the United States, Morocco, Brazil. On the sell side, we sold all of our positions in Barclay Bank Ipath Etn (JJG) and Wisdomtree Trust (ICN). We also sold Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) in late December for a nice long-term capital gain.
In Fixed Income area, we added several positions including Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET), which is headquartered in Canada and engaged in the exploitation, development, acquisition, and production of oil and natural gas; HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC), which provides various banking and financial products and services; Sanofi (SNY), a French drug maker with a current yield of 4.2% and Transmontaigne Partners, LP (TLP), which owns pipelines and storage/terminal facilities that handle refined petroleum products. As far as sales during the quarter in the fixed income area, we sold our entire position in PowerShares Senior Loan ETF (BKLN), Wells Fargo Advantage High Income Inv. (STHYX), and Enbridge Energy Management LLC (EEQ). We also sold several positions in municipal bonds including Blackrock MuniHoldings Investments (MFL), Nuveen Quality Income Municipal Fund Inc. (NQU), and Blackrock MuniHoldings Quality (MUE). Furthermore we also sold Rayonier (RNY) and Murphy Oil (MUR) to recognize the tax losses but re-established our full position late during the quarter.
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandcpa.com for a quick Retirement Calculator, our latest firm news, and Market Commentary archives.