Quarterly Investment Update – 1st Quarter 2015
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
1 ST
QUARTER 2015
April 02, 2015
Dear Friends and Clients,
The first quarter of 2015 started out with a steady procession of new all-time highs for the headline stock indexes until March, when stocks became more volatile and took all the gains away. The institutional benchmark for the U.S. stock market, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, gained less than half of 1% for the quarter. Furthermore, the trade-weighted U.S. dollar index surged 8.9%for the quarter, a huge jump for the world’s dominant currency.
A big run-up in the dollar automatically depresses results for U.S. investors in foreign stocks and bonds. Indirectly, it also puts a damper on demand for commodities like oil and gold, which are traditional havens from the long-term (decades-long) slide in the dollar’s purchasing power. Finally, a soaring currency shrinks the oversea profits (translated into dollars) of U.S. multinational corporations. Thanks in large part to the dollar’s rise; analysts have slashed their first quarter earnings estimates for the S&P 500 companies since December 31, from a projected 4.2% year-over-year increase back then to a 4.6% decline now.
Another broad exposure that hurt the performance of our portfolios was the energy sector. As far as oil is concerned, we do not expect a dramatic snapback in oil prices. As we previously discussed, too rapid a recovery for “black gold” would spell trouble if it provoked the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too quickly. However, a V-shaped recovery is not necessary to alter the dynamics in the financial market. It appears that both prices of oil as well as bond yields are holding steady and brushing aside evidence that would ordinarily trigger a pullback.
Investors are grappling with a remarkable amount of turbulence. This turbulence brings caution, which is the reason we have been shuffling quite a few positions in our portfolios this quarter. Earlier this quarter, we sold all our preferred stocks because of their extreme sensitivity to interest rates (bond yields in particular). Even though rates are currently low, the Federal Reserve is making preparations to raise them, at least on the short end of the maturity curve. We are hopeful the US dollar will begin to cool off soon, easing the pinch for corporations and governments in the developing world that have borrowed heavily in U.S. dollar. More recently, we have been trimming our exposure to emerging markets. We are still holding a modest position in Emerging Markets Bonds, but we have eliminated our position in Emerging Markets Equities.
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is a reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continue to maintain an average asset allocation mix of 45%-55% Equity, 45%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-10% cash for most of the portfolios.
In the equity portions of our portfolios, we added several new positions including Lafarge S.A. (LFRGY), a French industrial company specializing in three major products: cement, construction aggregates, and concrete; Encana Corporation (ECA) together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, exploration, production, and marketing of natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids in Canada and the United States; MetLife Inc. (MET), an insurance company that offers life insurance, annuities, employee benefits, and asset management products in the United States, Japan, other countries in Asia, Europe and Middle East; American Express Company (AXP), a financial institution providing charge and credit payment card products and travel-related services to consumers and businesses worldwide; Scripps Networks Interactive (SNI), a developer of lifestyle-oriented content for linear and interactive video platforms in the U.S.; and Fiduciary/Claymore MLP Opportunity Fund (FM0), a non-diversified, closed-end management and investment company toward the end of the quarter. On the sell side, we sold all of our positions in ConAgra Foods, Inc. (CAG); Wells Fargo Dep-A-O (WFC+O); Silver Bay Realty Trust Corporation (SBY); Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK); News Corporation (NWSA).
In the Fixed Income area, we initiated new positions in of Barclay PLC (BCS), a British financial institution that provides various financial products and services in London and worldwide; drug maker AbbVie (ABBV), spun off from Abbott Laboratories in 2013, discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products worldwide; Plains All American Pipeline L.P. (PAA), a company engaging in the transportation, storage, terminating and marketing of crude oil, natural gas liquids and other refined products; Toronto Dominion Bank (TD), a Canadian multinational banking and financial services corporation. As far as sales during the quarter in fixed income area, we sold our entire positions in Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM+J); Mattel, Inc. (MAT); JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM+D); GlaxoSmithKline (GSK); State Street (STT+C); Public Storage (PSA+V); PowerShares Financial Preferred Stock (PGF); NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE+H); Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD); Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ); TCW Emerging Market Income N (TGINX) and Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets (DGS).
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandcpa.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news, and Market Commentary archives.