Quarterly Investment Update – 2nd Quarter 2015
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
2 nd
QUARTER 2015
July 02, 2015
Dear Friends and Clients,
More than six years into the great global bull market for stocks, investors are still uneasy. This year’s seesaw stock market is ratcheting up fears that, someday soon, the bear may return and devour the stock gains investors have enjoyed since 2009. It is a legitimate concern, one we cannot afford to dismiss lightly. The financial world, like life itself, is full of uncertainties and risks. However, we can mitigate these hazards through prudent and timely action.
As far as the stock market is concerned, it appears that it maybe growing vulnerable to a near-term pull back of 5%-10%, with possible deeper and longer retracement, carrying into 2016. On the plus side, the economic news flow remains fairly encouraging, with housing starts, retail sales and jobs growth all pointing to a rebound in Quarter 2 Gross Domestic Product. Strangely, though, the stock markets over internal dynamics have deteriorated over the past few months. For instance, during the indexes upward march so far in 2015, individual stocks making their own new highs have been curiously sparse. In the three sessions leading up to the May 21 peak for the Standard & Poor’s, a maximum of only 124 NYSE issues touched their 52-weeks highs. By contrast, as many as 350 individual new highs were recorded in a single day as the market was trading out its January top. More stocks have also been posting new lows than is normal with the indexes so close to all-time highs. Because of the bull’s advanced age, we should acknowledge the increasing risk of a sharper and more protracted decline. Accordingly, we have been and will continue take some modest defensive measures.
As far as bonds are concerned, there have been a lot of various predictions made, including some who predict that “Interest rates will be rising for the next quarter century.” At the time of that grand proclamation, the 10-year Treasury note yielded 4.6% and the three-month bill paid 1.3%. Today, the 10-year Treasury note has dropped by roughly half and the three-month bill stands at essentially zero. We feel that a large segment of the financial community has been anticipating way too eagerly, for way too long-a “major” upturn for interest rates in general and bond yields in particular. We agree with general view that bond yields will rise (prices fall) over the long run, chiefly because the massive money printing by central banks throughout the world since 2008 will eventually ignite inflation at the retail cash register. Over the past two years, we have already caught a glimpse of what may lie ahead. In May 2013, when then – Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke first hinted to Wall Street that the Fed might throttle back its “quantitative easing” program, bond yields soared. But then, the global economy slowed in 2014, driving yields back down. By January 2015, the 30-year Treasury had set a fresh all-time low, while the 10-year Treasury made a slightly higher low than it did in July 2012.
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is a reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continue to maintain an average asset allocation mix of 45%-55% Equity, 45%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-10% cash for most of the portfolios.
The quarter provided very little buying opportunities for the equity portions of our portfolios. We added several new positions including; CNHI Industrial N.V. (CNHI), designing, producing, marketing, selling, and financing agricultural and construction equipment, trucks, commercial vehicles, buses, and specialty vehicles, engines, transmissions, and axles worldwide; Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), through its subsidiaries operating railroads and offering other freight transportations services or agricultural products, including grains, commodities produced from grains, and food and beverage products; automotive products. On the sell side, we sold all of our positions in Cohen & Steers Realty (CSRSX); Manning & Napier World (EXWAX); Pimco Total Return Fund (PTTDX).
In the Fixed Income area, we initiated new positions, including South Jersey Industries Inc.(SJI), a publicly held energy services holding company for a natural gas utility and other, non-regulated companies; Claymore MLP Opportunity Fund (FMO), a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company which invests portfolio of publicly traded securities of master limited partnerships (MLPs). We also added Oklahoma Gas & Electric (OGE), an energy and energy services provider offering physical delivery and related services for both electricity and natural gas in the south central United States. As far as sales during the quarter in fixed income area, we sold our entire positions in telecommunication company Telenor Asa Adr (TELNY).
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandcpa.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news, and Market Commentary archives.