Special Investment Update – August 21, 2015
SPECIAL INVESTMENT UPDATE
August 21, 2015
Dear Friends and Clients,
The purpose of this special investment update is to attempt to calm your anxiety in this volatile market as well as to announce our upcoming Open House/Anniversary celebration, which is scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2015 at our Jacksonville offices. The Open House is to showcase our new offices for Farmand Investment Services, Inc. at 4233 Atlantic Boulevard, next to our existing CPA offices. Moreover, this year marks the 40 th year anniversary of Farmand, Farmand and Farmand, LLP. Over the past 40 years, our CPA firm has been striving to provide quality accounting, auditing, tax planning, tax return preparation, wealth management services, and management consulting services to a wide range of clients in Northeast Florida and surrounding areas. We are proud to have built our respected reputation by working with so many remarkable individuals, families, and businesses of diverse size and scope. We are excited and look forward to the many years ahead for us. In addition, we will be handing out several financial reports of your portfolios as well as give a short update of the investment climate. It will be a wonderful opportunity to not only socialize, but also to meet our staff as well as to introduce to you our new website for Farmand Investment Services. We will be sending out formal invitations very soon and we look forward to have many of you attend and join our celebration.
In this special investment update, we want to discuss the current and long-term outlook for the major asset classes, and see how we can achieve our financial goals in all of our portfolios.
It is hard to get excited about how most investments performed during the first half of 2015. With stocks and bonds stuck in low gear during the first half of 2015, many investors have started to focus, almost obsessively, on short-term market movements. This is a trap that we must avoid. While such sluggish market behavior is somewhat out of character for the third year of a president’s term, it is by no means unheard of. Furthermore, the plunge in oil prices over the past 13 months, along with the collapse of just about any investment even vaguely related to petroleum has created s skin-crawling, palm-sweating horror show. Periods like this do not necessarily end in a sweeping downturn for all stocks. If you can recall the commodity downturn of 1985-1986, which included an oil collapse steeper than the one we are living through right now. As tough as those days were for investors with a hefty weighting in energy, base metals or agriculture, the broad equity indexes kept going higher, fighting off several nasty “corrections” along the way. That same scenario may well replay itself this time around. If so, we can expect that commodity prices will eventually bounce back along with a variety of related assets – from oil stocks and pipeline partnerships to emerging – market stocks and bonds to currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars. However, we must stay on guard. There is a chance, and it is not a trivial one, that the fallout from China’s economic slowdown could spread from the emerging world and do real harm to developed countries like our own. So far, fortunately, distress in the commodity sector appears to be having minimal impact on the U.S. jobs market.
As far as equities are concerned, as a whole, they are richly valued. Reliable yardsticks such as the price-sales ratio and the long-term (Shiller) price-earnings ratio suggest that stocks will log below-normal returns in the year ahead.
Interest rates are creeping up from historical lows. Although we do not foresee an explosive rise over the next few years, any increase in yields will lower returns from high-grade bonds. However, with appropriate precautions, one can protect the principal and even benefit from rising rates, while earning a generous income. The key is to choose reasonably safe investments that start out with a yield well above that of the 10-year Treasury note (2.25% as we write this letter), and offer the likelihood of substantial “pay hikes” down the road. These characteristics can be found in bonds as well as stocks.
As we noted in the past, we feel that bond funds, rather than individual bonds, will serve investors best in the environment we foresee in the coming years. Another form of protection against rising rates is high dividend-paying common stocks. Specifically, we want to own companies than can boost their dividends fast enough to outpace rising rates over the next five or ten years. Thus, we want to purchase common stocks that we believe can sweeten their dividends yield by more than 2% per year over the next decade. We are confident that positions in such sectors as utilities, real estate investment trusts, (REITs) and master limited partnerships (MLPs) will be able to achieve this amount of dividend growth.
In summary, our investment strategy remains the same; however, it is essential that we continue to be more cautious about our investments by limiting our risk. We do this by paying more attention to individual stocks and mutual funds rather than the market as a whole. In addition, we take additional defensive measures by taking some profits in some of our over-valued positions and limit our buying to the strongest and safe positions.
Thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm and it is always appreciated. We look forward to see you at our Open House/ Anniversary celebration.