Quarterly Investment Update – 3rd Quarter 2015
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT UPDATE
3RD QUARTER 2015
October 2, 2015
Dear Clients and Friends,
The quarter started out with stocks and bonds going sideways mostly due to concerns regarding the slow growth in China. The Standard & Poor 500 went through an 11% correction beginning August 17 until the August 25 low of 1,867.61. The Standard & Poor 500 then started trending back up until Janet Yellen and Company announced that the benchmark interest rate will remain the same for now. Ever since the Federal Reserve’s announcement, the stock market continued its downward slide to test the August 25 low. As you can see from the enclosed chart of the Standard & Poor 500 Index for the quarter, the August 25 low was tested on September 29 with that day’s low of 1,872.07. For the quarter ended September 30, 2015, the Standard & Poor 500 closed at 1,920.03.
Has the stock market formed a solid bottom that is strong enough to provide a solid base for a spirited year-end rally? This week’s market action shows that we are not there yet. Last Tuesday, the Standard & Poor 500 came within 4 1 / 2 points of its August 25 closing low. As we discussed in previous investment updates, we have been hoping for at least a marginal break of that level to herald the final bottom of this correction. We did not get that last Tuesday.
Once the market finds its footing we can expect a brisk reflex rally to lift the Standard & Poor’s 500 index to challenge its May peak of 2,130 by the end of the year or early 2016. But what happens then? The correction we had in August and September revealed serious weaknesses in the aging bull’s health. The projections released from the Federal Reserve meeting reflected that members of the Federal Reserve lowered their estimates of the economy’s long-term “real” growth potential to 1.8% -2.2% annually, down from a central tendency of 2% -2.3% in the June batch of forecasts. This is a disappointing low number, compared with the 3% – 3.5% that prevailed as recently as the eve of the Global Financial Crisis. This reinforces our view that Wall Street has greatly overestimated the ability of the U.S. economy to weather higher interest rates. Bond yields are likely to rise at a very modest pace in the years ahead. In addition, we feel that the following items should take place in order for the market to continue its primary uptrend:
- The Federal Reserve must go slow with any interest rate hikes. The Fed’s September 17 decision to do nothing is a good start.
- The weekly tally of first-time claiming for unemployment benefits must remain at or below 300,000. Low jobless claims keep the threat of recession along with collapsing corporate profits.
- China must shift from being a negative economic growth to at least a neutral economic growth.
It is becoming increasingly obvious that regardless of what the massaged official statistics may say the Chinese economic machine has slowed dramatically. Assuming the above items occur, then we are left with a favorable outlook for stocks in the near-term, but significant concerns about next year.
As far as our investment strategy is concerned, we continue to maintain our standard two-pronged strategy, which is to maintain a substantial exposure to common stocks (and mutual funds) as long as there is a reasonable prospect for double-digit returns. Furthermore, we will continue to take profits more frequently so that we could gradually increase our weighting in cash as well as the fixed income portion of our portfolios. During the quarter, we continue to maintain an average asset allocation mix of 45%-55% Equity, 45%-50% Fixed Income and 0%-10% cash for most of the portfolios.
In the equity portions of our portfolios, we added several new positions including Wynn Resorts Limited (WYNN) a developer and operator of high end hotel and casino based on Paradise, Nevada; Deltic Timber Corporation (DEL), a natural resources company focused on ownership and management of timberland. We also own Care Capital Property Inc. (CCP) who own, acquire, and lease skilled nursing facilities and other healthcare assets in the United States. We acquired CCP due to a spin off from Ventas Inc. (VTR). On the sell side, we sold our entire positions in Unilever PLC (UL); Pinnacle Foods Inc. (PF); Abbot Laboratories (ABT) and The Chemours Company (CC).
In the Fixed Income area, there was very little change in our portfolios. However, we added a small position in Walmart Stores Inc. (WMT) with a yield of 3.06%. As far as sales during the quarter in fixed income area, we sold our entire positions in Kellogg Company (K) and Clorox Company (CLX).
We want to thank all of you for giving our firm the opportunity to serve you. We thank you very much for the trust and confidence you have placed in our firm as it is always appreciated. Please contact me should you have any questions or comments. Also, we want to invite you to visit our website at www.farmandi nvestments.com for a quick Retirement calculator, our latest firm news, and Market Commentary archives.